luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Falcons, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Falcons 24–10, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites.

Final

Tennessee Titans 24
Atlanta Falcons 10

September 29, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3.5

Luck index +73 Titans very lucky · −73 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 TEN 39 ATL 24
  2. 2 TEN 24 ATL 17
  3. 3 TEN 27 ATL 24
  4. 4 TEN 34 ATL 36
  5. 5 TEN 24 ATL 28
  6. 6 TEN 23 ATL 31
  7. 7 TEN 17 ATL 28
  8. 8 TEN 17 ATL 31
  9. 9 TEN 17 ATL 35
  10. 10 TEN 24 ATL 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 27% of them, Falcons 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.7%
Titans by 9–167.7%
Titans by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation3.6%
Falcons by 1–822.9%
Falcons by 9–1620.5%
Falcons by 17+27.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 4.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Bryant, 32 yds missed · 96% expected
  • M. Bryant, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Logan Ryan), 32 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:18 The Titans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Titans (Delanie Walker), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 106 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Tyeler Davison), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 130 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:32 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:21 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% ATL ATL: Turnover
6 Q2 5:57 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% TEN ATL: Missed field goal
7 Q3 12:58 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% ATL ATL: Field goal
8 Q3 5:18 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% TEN ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 79% · Falcons 21%

Final margin
Titans by 14
Luck in points
9.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 27% · Falcons 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Titans · Falcons

More from Week 4 2019