AFC South
Tennessee Titans: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Titans have won 51 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 45.2. Luck added 5.8 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+2.3 wins), the unluckiest 2024 (−1.7).
2026: 1–7 so far, replay wins 2.1 (−1.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–7 | 2.1 | −1.1 | 1–5 | +0.10 | – |
| 2025 | 3–14 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 2–5 | −0.39 | – |
| 2024 | 3–14 | 4.7 | −1.7 | 2–6 | −0.76 | – |
| 2023 | 6–11 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 5–7 | +0.05 | – |
| 2022 | 7–10 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 5–6 | +0.11 | – |
| 2021 | 12–5 | 9.7 | +2.3 | 6–2 | −0.97 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 11–5 | 9.8 | +1.2 | 7–2 | +0.69 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 9–7 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 3–3 | +0.37 | 2–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.8 | −0.23 | +0.23 | −0.68 | −0.20 | +0.25 | −0.22 |
| 2024 | −1.7 | +0.20 | +0.49 | +0.34 | −0.38 | +0.55 | −0.31 |
| 2023 | +0.9 | −0.18 | −0.59 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | −0.44 | −0.86 | −0.75 | +0.05 | −0.73 | −0.30 |
| 2021 | +2.3 | −0.12 | −0.48 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.20 | +0.69 |
| 2020 | +1.2 | −0.12 | −0.31 | 0.00 | +0.34 | −0.08 | −0.04 |
| 2019 | +2.3 | +0.27 | +0.32 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.28 | −0.23 |
| Since 2019 | +5.8 | −0.61 | −1.19 | −1.32 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.38 |
Are the Titans lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Titans have won 51 regular-season games from play worth 45.2: +5.8 wins of luck, the 7th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Titans been so lucky?
Most of it came from injuries (0.0 wins) and 3rd & 4th downs (−0.4 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 30–31 since 2019, where the replays give them 25.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Titans’ luckiest season?
2019: 9–7 from play worth 6.7 wins, +2.3 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2024: 3–14 from play worth 4.7 (−1.7).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Titans’ luckiest wins
Wins the Titans take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Week 14 | @ Dolphins | W 28–27 | 4% | +96 |
| 2019 Week 8 | vs Buccaneers | W 27–23 | 16% | +84 |
| 2019 Week 7 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 20% | +80 |
| 2019 Week 4 | @ Falcons | W 24–10 | 23% | +77 |
| 2019 Week 13 | @ Colts | W 31–17 | 28% | +72 |
The Titans’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Titans would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 8 | @ Bengals | L 20–31 | 92% | −92 |
| 2021 Week 11 | vs Texans | L 13–22 | 89% | −89 |
| 2021 Divisional round | vs Bengals | L 16–19 | 81% | −81 |
| 2021 Week 4 | @ Jets | L 24–27 | 71% | −71 |
| 2022 Week 16 | vs Texans | L 14–19 | 65% | −65 |
