luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Colts, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 31–17, but the replays lean toward the Colts: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 55 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 5:12 left): A. Vinatieri had a 46-yard field goal blocked, worth 37 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Indianapolis Colts 17

December 1, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +72 Titans very lucky · −72 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 TEN 38 IND 20
  2. 2 TEN 20 IND 10
  3. 3 TEN 30 IND 27
  4. 4 TEN 26 IND 28
  5. 5 TEN 27 IND 33
  6. 6 TEN 24 IND 33
  7. 7 TEN 7 IND 19
  8. 8 TEN 9 IND 24
  9. 9 TEN 3 IND 23
  10. 10 TEN 13 IND 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 28% of them, Colts 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+4.9%
Titans by 9–168.4%
Titans by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Colts by 1–822.8%
Colts by 9–1619.8%
Colts by 17+26.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.8 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 14, without the luck Titans by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 55 yds missed · 66% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 53 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Succop, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 46 yds blocked · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 3 for 33 yards, Colts 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:37 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q1 2:16 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +1.6 pts
Q2 3:02 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jonathan Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% TEN +1.5 pts
Q2 2:05 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Dane Cruikshank), 8 yards 0% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 9:12 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 9:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 15 yards +5% IND +1.8 pts
Q4 7:18 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 1:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Margus Hunt), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:14 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:16 A. Vinatieri missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% TEN IND: Missed field goal
3 Q1 2:11 The Titans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% IND TEN: Punt
4 Q1 0:52 A. Vinatieri had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +8% TEN IND: Field goal
5 Q2 0:33 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% IND TEN: Punt
6 Q3 11:46 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:18 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 5:12 The game turned hereA. Vinatieri had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 77% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before +37% TEN IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Parris Campbell (IND WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marlon Mack (IND RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 86% · Colts 14%

Final margin
Titans by 14
Luck in points
7.8 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Titans 28% · Colts 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Titans · Colts

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