luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Colts, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 31–17, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:12 left): A. Vinatieri had a 46-yard field goal blocked, worth 37 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Indianapolis Colts 17

December 1, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +76 Titans very lucky · −76 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 37 IND 21
  2. 2 TEN 27 IND 23
  3. 3 TEN 24 IND 26
  4. 4 TEN 28 IND 32
  5. 5 TEN 21 IND 29
  6. 6 TEN 27 IND 38
  7. 7 TEN 10 IND 24
  8. 8 TEN 10 IND 26
  9. 9 TEN 13 IND 34
  10. 10 TEN 27 IND 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 24% of them, Colts 76%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.3%
Titans by 9–167.0%
Titans by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation2.8%
Colts by 1–823.8%
Colts by 9–1620.0%
Colts by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 53 yds blocked · 67% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 46 yds blocked · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:14 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:16 A. Vinatieri missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 4 of 7 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% TEN IND: Missed field goal
3 Q1 0:52 A. Vinatieri had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 67% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +8% TEN IND: Field goal
4 Q2 13:22 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% IND TEN: Punt
5 Q2 0:33 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% IND TEN: Punt
6 Q3 11:46 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:59 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:12 A. Vinatieri had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 77% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before +37% TEN IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Parris Campbell (IND WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marlon Mack (IND RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 82% · Colts 18%

Final margin
Titans by 14
Luck in points
8.8 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Titans 24% · Colts 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Titans · Colts

More from Week 13 2019