luckadjusted

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Chiefs, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 40–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 80% favorites.

Final

Oakland Raiders 9
Kansas City Chiefs 40

December 1, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −11.5

Luck index +22 Chiefs about even · −22 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Chiefs win 8.

  1. 1 OAK 38 KC 27
  2. 2 OAK 24 KC 21
  3. 3 OAK 20 KC 22
  4. 4 OAK 12 KC 17
  5. 5 OAK 20 KC 27
  6. 6 OAK 14 KC 24
  7. 7 OAK 6 KC 20
  8. 8 OAK 12 KC 28
  9. 9 OAK 13 KC 33
  10. 10 OAK 6 KC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 22% of them, Chiefs 78%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+2.2%
Raiders by 9–165.5%
Raiders by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Chiefs by 1–825.8%
Chiefs by 9–1622.7%
Chiefs by 17+25.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 7.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 44 yds missed · 72% expected
  • H. Butker, 50 yds made · 58% expected
  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darren Waller), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 625 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +5% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:18 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:32 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:26 The Raiders fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% KC OAK: Punt
5 Q1 5:24 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% OAK KC: Punt
6 Q2 9:58 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% KC OAK: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 7:18 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 254 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +4% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q2 3:52 Return touchdown by the ChiefsSpecial teams +5% KC KC: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Ogbah (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Martinas Rankin (KC T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 19% · Chiefs 81%

Final margin
Chiefs by 31
Luck in points
24.0 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 22% · Chiefs 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Raiders · Chiefs

More from Week 13 2019