AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Chiefs have won 84 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 80.4. Luck added 3.6 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+4.1 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.9).
2026: 6–2 so far, replay wins 5.6 (+0.4 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–2 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 2–1 | −0.46 | – |
| 2025 | 6–11 | 9.9 | −3.9 | 1–9 | −0.82 | – |
| 2024 | 15–2 | 12.1 | +2.9 | 11–0 | −0.07 | 2–1 |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 11.9 | −0.9 | 6–5 | −0.48 | 4–0 |
| 2022 | 14–3 | 13.6 | +0.4 | 7–3 | −0.38 | 3–0 |
| 2021 | 12–5 | 12.3 | −0.3 | 5–3 | −0.49 | 2–1 |
| 2020 | 14–2 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 8–1 | −1.47 | 2–1 |
| 2019 | 12–4 | 10.6 | +1.4 | 5–4 | −0.35 | 3–0 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −3.9 | +0.32 | −1.01 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −0.26 |
| 2024 | +2.9 | +0.21 | +1.16 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.57 |
| 2023 | −0.9 | −0.18 | +0.26 | −0.81 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.22 |
| 2022 | +0.4 | −0.21 | −1.47 | +0.35 | −0.19 | +0.54 | +0.52 |
| 2021 | −0.3 | +0.13 | +0.13 | 0.00 | −0.24 | +0.38 | +0.32 |
| 2020 | +4.1 | +0.12 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.10 | +0.30 |
| 2019 | +1.4 | +0.08 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.58 | +0.36 |
| Since 2019 | +3.6 | +0.48 | −0.10 | −0.56 | −2.03 | −0.15 | +2.03 |
Are the Chiefs lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Chiefs have won 84 regular-season games from play worth 80.4: +3.6 wins of luck, the 9th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Chiefs been so lucky?
Most of it came from 3rd & 4th downs (+2.0 wins) and fumble bounces (+0.5 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 43–25 since 2019, where the replays give them 42.6 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Chiefs’ luckiest season?
2020: 14–2 from play worth 9.9 wins, +4.1 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 6–11 from play worth 9.9 (−3.9).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Chiefs’ luckiest wins
Wins the Chiefs take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl LVIII (2024) | vs 49ers | W 25–22 | 16% | +84 |
| 2023 Week 2 | @ Jaguars | W 17–9 | 34% | +66 |
| 2019 Week 11 | vs Chargers | W 24–17 | 36% | +64 |
| 2022 Week 2 | vs Chargers | W 27–24 | 37% | +64 |
| 2020 Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 23–20 | 38% | +62 |
The Chiefs’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Chiefs would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Eagles | L 17–20 | 90% | −90 |
| 2022 Week 3 | @ Colts | L 17–20 | 90% | −90 |
| 2021 Week 17 | @ Bengals | L 31–34 | 83% | −83 |
| 2021 AFC Championship | vs Bengals | L 24–27 | 83% | −83 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Texans | L 10–20 | 79% | −79 |
