AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Chiefs have won 84 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 80.7. Luck added 3.3 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+4.1 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.4).
2026: 2–0 so far, replay wins 1.4 (+0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 1–0 | −3.20 | – |
| 2025 | 6–11 | 9.4 | −3.4 | 1–9 | −1.49 | – |
| 2024 | 15–2 | 12.1 | +2.9 | 11–0 | +0.05 | 2–1 |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 12.7 | −1.7 | 6–5 | −1.04 | 4–0 |
| 2022 | 14–3 | 13.6 | +0.4 | 7–3 | −0.90 | 3–0 |
| 2021 | 12–5 | 12.3 | −0.3 | 5–3 | −1.31 | 2–1 |
| 2020 | 14–2 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 8–1 | −1.26 | 2–1 |
| 2019 | 12–4 | 10.7 | +1.3 | 5–4 | −1.57 | 3–0 |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Chiefs take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Super Bowl | vs 49ers | W 25–22 | 16% | +84 |
| 2022 Week 2 | vs Chargers | W 27–24 | 33% | +67 |
| 2019 Week 11 | @ Chargers | W 24–17 | 36% | +64 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs Ravens | W 37–20 | 37% | +63 |
| 2020 Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 23–20 | 40% | +60 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Chiefs would win most often in a replay.
