2020 season · final
Kansas City Chiefs, 2020: game by game
The Chiefs went 14–2 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck added 4.1: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–1.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.9.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | W 34–20 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 23–20 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 3 | @ Ravens | W 34–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | W 26–10 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 5 | vs Raiders | L 32–40 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 6 | @ Bills | W 26–17 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 7 | @ Broncos | W 43–16 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 8 | vs Jets | W 35–9 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 9 | vs Panthers | W 33–31 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 11 | @ Raiders | W 35–31 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 12 | @ Buccaneers | W 27–24 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 13 | vs Broncos | W 22–16 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 14 | @ Dolphins | W 33–27 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 15 | @ Saints | W 32–29 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 16 | vs Falcons | W 17–14 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 17 | vs Chargers | L 21–38 | 24% | −24 |
| Divisional round | vs Browns | W 22–17 | 86% | +14 |
| AFC Championship | vs Bills | W 38–24 | 85% | +15 |
| Super Bowl | @ Buccaneers | L 9–31 | 17% | −17 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +13.3 | +0.83 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +2.7 | +0.17 |
| Rest | +1.4 | +0.09 |
| Fumble bounces | −3.1 | −0.20 |
| Injuries | −5.5 | −0.34 |
| Judgment calls | −20.2 | −1.26 |