2020 season · final
Kansas City Chiefs, 2020: game by game
The Chiefs went 14–2 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck added 4.1: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–1.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.9.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | W 34–20 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 2 | @ Chargers | W 23–20 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 3 | @ Ravens | W 34–20 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | W 26–10 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 5 | vs Raiders | L 32–40 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 6 | @ Bills | W 26–17 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 7 | @ Broncos | W 43–16 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 8 | vs Jets | W 35–9 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | vs Panthers | W 33–31 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 11 | @ Raiders | W 35–31 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 12 | @ Buccaneers | W 27–24 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 13 | vs Broncos | W 22–16 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 14 | @ Dolphins | W 33–27 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 15 | @ Saints | W 32–29 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 16 | vs Falcons | W 17–14 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 17 | vs Chargers | L 21–38 | 24% | −24 |
| Divisional round | vs Browns | W 22–17 | 88% | +12 |
| AFC Championship | vs Bills | W 38–24 | 85% | +15 |
| Super Bowl | vs Buccaneers | L 9–31 | 14% | −14 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.84 | +12.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.30 | +3.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.12 | −4.5 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| Injuries | −0.10 | −4.1 |
| Judgment calls | −0.74 | −10.3 |