Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Chiefs?
No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Chiefs 1.10 points a game since 2019, the 3rd-most of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +0.41 points a game over 19 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Chiefs minus the calls that hurt them.
| Season | Games | Points per game | League rank | Flags against | Flags for | Playoffs, pts per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | −3.20 | 30th | 10 | 6 | – |
| 2025 | 17 | −1.49 | 29th | 80 | 62 | – |
| 2024 | 17 | +0.05 | 16th | 64 | 63 | +1.31 (3) |
| 2023 | 17 | −1.04 | 28th | 63 | 45 | −1.19 (4) |
| 2022 | 17 | −0.90 | 28th | 68 | 70 | +1.31 (3) |
| 2021 | 17 | −1.31 | 26th | 75 | 65 | −0.32 (3) |
| 2020 | 16 | −1.26 | 28th | 71 | 55 | −4.10 (3) |
| 2019 | 16 | −1.57 | 27th | 84 | 76 | +5.97 (3) |
Biggest calls for the Chiefs
- Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 4 · 35 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Daijahn Anthony), 29 yards · 2024 Week 2 · 32 pts of win probability
- Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards · 2022 Week 3 · 28 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 47 yards · 2025 Week 11 · 25 pts of win probability
- Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 8 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 17 · 23 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 5 · 100 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 2 · 54 pts of win probability
- Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 2 · 47 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 13 · 32 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 2 · 31 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Chiefs?
No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Chiefs 1.10 points a game since 2019, the 3rd-most of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: +0.41 points a game over 19 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Kansas City Chiefs, every season