2021 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2021: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Steelers most in 2021: +2.72 points a game, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t. They hurt the Bills most: −2.22 a game. The Cowboys drew the most flags, 127.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.06), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, pts per game	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Steelers	+2.72	63	65	43
2	Broncos	+1.87	53	62	30
3	Falcons	+1.75	49	70	43
4	Giants	+1.62	52	67	36
5	Bengals	+1.56	44	70	28
6	Colts	+1.39	47	64	28
7	Lions	+1.13	54	64	51
8	Seahawks	+1.06	61	69	36
9	Dolphins	+0.85	64	67	41
10	Rams	+0.63	45	48	31
11	Patriots	+0.60	57	69	38
12	Jaguars	+0.57	60	64	44
13	Washington	+0.53	51	57	31
14	Jets	+0.24	69	53	34
15	Ravens	+0.08	62	61	40
16	Panthers	0.00	61	64	46
17	Titans	−0.17	72	73	31
18	Bears	−0.25	69	63	37
19	Browns	−0.26	64	70	48
20	Saints	−0.27	60	58	38
21	Raiders	−0.37	82	68	42
22	Texans	−0.49	71	60	43
23	Cardinals	−0.61	73	65	41
24	Packers	−1.20	49	55	20
25	Cowboys	−1.23	80	77	47
26	Chiefs	−1.31	75	65	35
27	Buccaneers	−1.35	56	49	40
28	Chargers	−1.41	76	69	40
29	Eagles	−1.43	70	54	37
30	49ers	−1.88	71	57	30
31	Vikings	−2.18	81	60	30
32	Bills	−2.22	81	65	32

Call luck by team

PIT +2.72 1st

DEN +1.87 2nd

ATL +1.75 3rd

NYG +1.62 4th

CIN +1.56 5th

IND +1.39 6th

DET +1.13 7th

SEA +1.06 8th

MIA +0.85 9th

LA +0.63 10th

NE +0.60 11th

JAX +0.57 12th

WAS +0.53 13th

NYJ +0.24 14th

BAL +0.08 15th

CAR 0.00 16th

TEN −0.17 17th

CHI −0.25 18th

CLE −0.26 19th

NO −0.27 20th

LV −0.37 21st

HOU −0.49 22nd

ARI −0.61 23rd

GB −1.20 24th

DAL −1.23 25th

KC −1.31 26th

TB −1.35 27th

LAC −1.41 28th

PHI −1.43 29th

SF −1.88 30th

MIN −2.18 31st

BUF −2.22 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: points per game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team, pts
Carl Cheffers	16	9.3	4.9	−0.73
Land Clark	16	8.7	5.0	+1.19
Scott Novak	16	8.4	4.9	−0.29
Shawn Hochuli	17	8.7	4.4	+0.77
Alex Kemp	17	7.7	5.1	+1.68
Clete Blakeman	17	8.5	3.8	−0.08
Adrian Hill	16	7.9	4.3	+1.79
Brad Rogers	16	7.9	4.0	+0.33
Clay Martin	17	7.4	4.2	+0.99
Jerome Boger	17	6.2	5.3	+0.68
Craig Wrolstad	17	6.6	4.6	+0.02
Brad Allen	17	7.1	4.2	+1.05
Shawn Smith	17	6.7	4.1	−0.55
Tony Corrente	16	6.6	4.0	−1.55
John Hussey	17	6.2	4.1	−0.62
Ron Torbert	18	6.4	3.4	−0.51
Bill Vinovich	17	5.2	3.9	+0.70

All referees since 2019 · 2021 luck rankings · Expected wins