2021 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2021: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Colts most in 2021: +1.28 wins, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t, each weighted by the moment it came. They hurt the Cowboys most: −1.11 wins. The Cowboys were flagged the most, 127 times.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out, so a call in a decided game counts for nothing and one at the turn of a close game for most of a win. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.09), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, wins	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Colts	+1.28	47	64	28
2	Steelers	+1.11	63	65	43
3	Lions	+0.93	54	64	51
4	Patriots	+0.88	57	69	38
5	Bengals	+0.74	44	70	28
6	Rams	+0.74	45	48	31
7	Browns	+0.73	64	70	48
8	Giants	+0.68	52	67	36
9	Jaguars	+0.51	60	64	44
10	Falcons	+0.51	49	70	43
11	Raiders	+0.48	82	68	42
12	Broncos	+0.46	53	62	30
13	Washington	+0.36	51	57	31
14	Seahawks	+0.06	61	69	36
15	Texans	−0.09	71	60	43
16	Packers	−0.11	49	55	20
17	Dolphins	−0.13	64	67	41
18	Saints	−0.15	60	58	38
19	Panthers	−0.20	61	64	46
20	Jets	−0.22	69	53	34
21	Bears	−0.35	69	63	37
22	Eagles	−0.49	70	54	37
23	Chiefs	−0.49	75	65	35
24	Buccaneers	−0.54	56	49	40
25	Cardinals	−0.56	73	65	41
26	Bills	−0.57	81	65	32
27	Chargers	−0.77	76	69	40
28	49ers	−0.85	71	57	30
29	Vikings	−0.91	81	60	30
30	Ravens	−0.96	62	61	40
31	Titans	−0.97	72	73	31
32	Cowboys	−1.11	80	77	47

Call luck by team

IND +1.28 1st

PIT +1.11 2nd

DET +0.93 3rd

NE +0.88 4th

CIN +0.74 5th

LA +0.74 6th

CLE +0.73 7th

NYG +0.68 8th

JAX +0.51 9th

ATL +0.51 10th

LV +0.48 11th

DEN +0.46 12th

WAS +0.36 13th

SEA +0.06 14th

HOU −0.09 15th

GB −0.11 16th

MIA −0.13 17th

NO −0.15 18th

CAR −0.20 19th

NYJ −0.22 20th

CHI −0.35 21st

PHI −0.49 22nd

KC −0.49 23rd

TB −0.54 24th

ARI −0.56 25th

BUF −0.57 26th

LAC −0.77 27th

SF −0.85 28th

MIN −0.91 29th

BAL −0.96 30th

TEN −0.97 31st

DAL −1.11 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: share of a win a game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team
Carl Cheffers	16	9.3	4.9	+1.3%
Land Clark	16	8.7	5.0	−2.6%
Scott Novak	16	8.4	4.9	+0.4%
Shawn Hochuli	17	8.7	4.4	+1.9%
Alex Kemp	17	7.7	5.1	+5.3%
Clete Blakeman	17	8.5	3.8	+3.4%
Adrian Hill	16	7.9	4.3	+5.4%
Brad Rogers	16	7.9	4.0	−0.2%
Clay Martin	17	7.4	4.2	+4.3%
Jerome Boger	17	6.2	5.3	+3.9%
Craig Wrolstad	17	6.6	4.6	+4.5%
Brad Allen	17	7.1	4.2	+5.5%
Shawn Smith	17	6.7	4.1	+0.4%
Tony Corrente	16	6.6	4.0	−4.4%
John Hussey	17	6.2	4.1	−0.1%
Ron Torbert	18	6.4	3.4	−2.0%
Bill Vinovich	17	5.2	3.9	+2.9%

All referees since 2019 · 2021 luck rankings · Expected wins