luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the 49ers?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.43 points a game to the 49ers since 2019, 24th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.38 points a game over 14 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the 49ers minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−3.12 28th87 –
202517+0.88 9th5364 +0.45 (2)
202417−1.30 27th5847 –
202317−0.38 20th6359 −1.58 (3)
202217+0.50 8th5862 −2.55 (3)
202117−1.88 30th7157 −0.47 (3)
202016−1.07 26th5947 –
201916+0.58 15th6776 −2.16 (3)

Biggest calls for the 49ers

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 44 pts of win probability
  2. Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns, 15 yards · 2023 Week 6 · 28 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 17 · 26 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 11 · 22 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 14 · 20 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Upton Stout), 13 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 4 · 26 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 8 · 23 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 6 yards · 2025 Week 3 · 23 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 14 · 19 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Renardo Green), 33 yards · 2025 Week 3 · 19 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the 49ers?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.43 points a game to the 49ers since 2019, 24th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: −1.38 points a game over 14 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · San Francisco 49ers, every season