2026 season · in progress
San Francisco 49ers, 2026: game by game
The 49ers went 7–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–0.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Rams | W 27–7 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Dolphins | W 35–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Cardinals | W 36–30 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 4 | vs Broncos | W 24–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | W 32–29 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 6 | vs Commanders | W 23–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 7 | @ Falcons | L 20–29 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 9 | vs Raiders | W 38–17 | 98% | +2 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | 49ers win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | at Cowboys |  49ers by 2.8 | 59% |
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | vs Vikings | 49ers by 5.8 | 67% |
| Week 12 · Nov 29 | vs Seahawks | 49ers by 5.8 | 67% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Giants | 49ers by 5.0 | 65% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | vs Rams | 49ers by 3.3 | 60% |
| Week 15 · Dec 17 | at Chargers | 49ers by 9.8 | 77% |
| Week 16 · Dec 27 | at Chiefs |  Chiefs by 0.6 | 48% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | vs Eagles | 49ers by 12.1 | 82% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | at Cardinals | 49ers by 8.9 | 75% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.59 | +8.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.23 | +1.2 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.09 | −8.1 |
| Injuries | −0.21 | −7.9 |
| Kicks | −0.33 | −14.9 |