2026 season · in progress
San Francisco 49ers, 2026: game by game
The 49ers went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Rams | W 27–7 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Dolphins | W 35–13 | 99% | +1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +2.3 | +1.13 |
| Kicks | +1.3 | +0.67 |
| Rest | +0.6 | +0.29 |
| Fumble bounces | −1.6 | −0.79 |
| Drops | −1.7 | −0.87 |
| Injuries | −2.0 | −1.00 |
| Judgment calls | −6.2 | −3.12 |