luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

San Francisco 49ers, 2026: game by game

The 49ers went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Rams W 27–7 89% +11
Week 2 vs Dolphins W 35–13 99% +1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs+2.3+1.13
Kicks+1.3+0.67
Rest+0.6+0.29
Fumble bounces−1.6−0.79
Drops−1.7−0.87
Injuries−2.0−1.00
Judgment calls−6.2−3.12