One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The 49ers in one-score games

The 49ers are 3–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 5–1 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.8 of those 3. Since 2019: 27–24 in 51 one-score games, 33.2 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the 49ers win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.2 3–0

2025 +1.4 5–1

2024 −2.9 2–6

2023 −1.6 1–3

2022 +0.1 3–1

2021 −1.4 5–5

2020 −2.3 3–5

2019 +0.3 5–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	3–0	2.8 of 3	+0.2	7–1
2025	5–1	3.6 of 6	+1.4	12–5
2024	2–6	4.9 of 8	−2.9	6–11
2023	1–3	2.6 of 4	−1.6	12–5
2022	3–1	2.9 of 4	+0.1	13–4
2021	5–5	6.4 of 10	−1.4	10–7
2020	3–5	5.3 of 8	−2.3	6–10
2019	5–3	4.7 of 8	+0.3	13–3

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 3	vs Cardinals	W 36–30	92%	+8
Week 5	@ Seahawks	W 32–29	98%	+2
Week 6	vs Commanders	W 23–17	88%	+12

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · San Francisco 49ers, every season