2024 season · final

San Francisco 49ers, 2024: game by game

The 49ers went 6–11 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck cost them 3.9: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–6.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Jets	W 32–19	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Vikings	L 17–23	51%	−51
Week 3	@ Rams	L 24–27	73%	−73
Week 4	vs Patriots	W 30–13	99%	+1
Week 5	vs Cardinals	L 23–24	41%	−41
Week 6	@ Seahawks	W 36–24	99%	+1
Week 7	vs Chiefs	L 18–28	29%	−29
Week 8	vs Cowboys	W 30–24	98%	+2
Week 10	@ Buccaneers	W 23–20	86%	+14
Week 11	vs Seahawks	L 17–20	61%	−61
Week 12	@ Packers	L 10–38	4%	−4
Week 13	@ Bills	L 10–35	3%	−3
Week 14	vs Bears	W 38–13	99%	+1
Week 15	vs Rams	L 6–12	38%	−38
Week 16	@ Dolphins	L 17–29	57%	−57
Week 17	vs Lions	L 34–40	46%	−46
Week 18	@ Cardinals	L 24–47	9%	−9

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +2 vs NYJ

Wk 2 −51 @ MIN

Wk 3 −73 @ LA

Wk 4 +1 vs NE

Wk 5 −41 vs ARI

Wk 6 +1 @ SEA

Wk 7 −29 vs KC

Wk 8 +2 vs DAL

Wk 10 +14 @ TB

Wk 11 −61 vs SEA

Wk 12 −4 @ GB

Wk 13 −3 @ BUF

Wk 14 +1 vs CHI

Wk 15 −38 vs LA

Wk 16 −57 @ MIA

Wk 17 −46 vs DET

Wk 18 −9 @ ARI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	−0.11	−4.5
3rd & 4th downs	−0.13	−4.4
Drops	−0.14	−13.2
Fumble bounces	−0.35	−6.8
Judgment calls	−0.46	−10.3
Kicks	−0.51	−27.9
Injuries	−0.79	−29.7