Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025
49ers at Cardinals, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the 49ers 47–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:33 left): the Cardinals converted 4th & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 47 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Cardinals about even · −9 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 1, Cardinals win 9.
- 1 SF 34 ARI 28
- 2 SF 33 ARI 35
- 3 SF 30 ARI 35
- 4 SF 30 ARI 38
- 5 SF 27 ARI 38
- 6 SF 31 ARI 45
- 7 SF 23 ARI 41
- 8 SF 10 ARI 33
- 9 SF 17 ARI 45
- 10 SF 6 ARI 44
Your call
Did the Cardinals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 9% of them, Cardinals 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 0.9% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 54.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 51 yds made · 67% expected
- J. Moody, 47 yds missed · 75% expected
- C. Ryland, 51 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Ryland, 49 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: 49ers 13 for 85 yards, Cardinals 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:48 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:38 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the 49ers, 5 yards | +2% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:05 | Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Leonard Floyd), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:06 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Maliek Collins), 5 yards | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:49 | Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Encroachment on the 49ers (Jordan Elliott), 3 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:26 | Illegal Contact on the 49ers (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards | +2% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:58 | Face Mask on the 49ers, 2 yards | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 1 yard | 0% ARI +0.1 pts |
| Q3 7:53 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Jacob Cowing), 10 yards | +2% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Tatum Bethune), 10 yards | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Rock Ya-Sin), 24 yards | +1% ARI +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:24 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:48 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.6 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:57 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% ARI | SF: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:45 | J. Moody missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 13 of 23 from 45+ before | +6% ARI | SF: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 2:33 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +10% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 8:33 | The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:21 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 13:01 | The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SF | SF: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 0:44 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:16 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% SF | SF: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jonah Williams (ARI T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.8 pts
- James Conner (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jackson Barton (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by j.dobbs · 9.0 pts
- Trent Williams (SF T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Deommodore Lenoir (SF CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Christian McCaffrey (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- De'Vondre Campbell (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Jaylon Moore (SF T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Aaron Banks (SF G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 0% · Cardinals 100%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 23
- Luck in points
- 12.6 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 9% · Cardinals 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · 
49ers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 18 2024
- Browns at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 19–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 23–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 44–38 · replay 11% for the winner
- Bears at Packers CHI 24–22 · replay 1% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 23–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 26–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 27–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys WAS 23–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 38–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 34–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 32–20 · replay 99% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 30–25 · replay 42% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 31–9 · replay 93% for the winner