luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Saints at Buccaneers, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 27–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.8 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 86% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:36 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

January 5, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −14.5

Luck index +14 Buccaneers about even · −14 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 NO 31 TB 24
  2. 2 NO 5 TB 7
  3. 3 NO 30 TB 34
  4. 4 NO 20 TB 27
  5. 5 NO 13 TB 22
  6. 6 NO 15 TB 27
  7. 7 NO 20 TB 34
  8. 8 NO 9 TB 27
  9. 9 NO 9 TB 32
  10. 10 NO 5 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 14% of them, Buccaneers 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+0.9%
Saints by 9–162.7%
Saints by 1–89.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Buccaneers by 1–826.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1625.1%
Buccaneers by 17+34.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 0.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Grupe, 49 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q3 7:36 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% NO TB: Punt
3 Q4 11:34 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +14% NO TB: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:49 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Jalen McMillan), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 573 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +13% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:20 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:15 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:29 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Ko Kieft), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% NO NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +12% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cade Otton (TB TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.7 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (NO G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 28% · Buccaneers 72%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 8
Luck in points
8.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Saints 14% · Buccaneers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Saints · Buccaneers

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