luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · January 4, 2025–January 5

Week 18 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Patriots beat the Bills 23–16 in a game they win 27% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 18 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bears 24–22 @ Packers 23% 1% Lucky
Panthers 44–38 @ Falcons 29% 11% Lucky
Patriots 23–16 vs Bills 41% 27% Lucky
Texans 23–14 @ Titans 43% 86% Deserved

Week 18 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 24–22 @ Packers 1% +99
2 Panthers W 44–38 @ Falcons 11% +89
3 Patriots W 23–16 vs Bills 27% +73
4 Seahawks W 30–25 @ Rams 42% +58
5 Commanders W 23–19 @ Cowboys 76% +24
6 Bengals W 19–17 @ Steelers 82% +18
7 Eagles W 20–13 vs Giants 83% +17
8 Texans W 23–14 @ Titans 86% +14
9 Colts W 26–23 vs Jaguars 87% +13
10 Buccaneers W 27–19 vs Saints 87% +13
11 Cardinals W 47–24 vs 49ers 91% +9
12 Lions W 31–9 vs Vikings 93% +7
13 Chargers W 34–20 @ Raiders 95% +5
14 Broncos W 38–0 vs Chiefs 97% +3
15 Jets W 32–20 vs Dolphins 99% +1
16 Ravens W 35–10 vs Browns 100% 0
17 Browns L 10–35 @ Ravens 0% 0
18 Dolphins L 20–32 @ Jets 1% −1
19 Chiefs L 0–38 @ Broncos 3% −3
20 Raiders L 20–34 vs Chargers 5% −5
21 Vikings L 9–31 @ Lions 7% −7
22 49ers L 24–47 @ Cardinals 9% −9
23 Saints L 19–27 @ Buccaneers 13% −13
24 Jaguars L 23–26 @ Colts 13% −13
25 Titans L 14–23 vs Texans 14% −14
26 Giants L 13–20 @ Eagles 17% −17
27 Steelers L 17–19 vs Bengals 18% −18
28 Cowboys L 19–23 vs Commanders 24% −24
29 Rams L 25–30 vs Seahawks 58% −58
30 Bills L 16–23 @ Patriots 73% −73
31 Falcons L 38–44 vs Panthers 89% −89
32 Packers L 22–24 vs Bears 99% −99