Chargers 12 
Texans 32 Coin flip · Texans win 46% of replays 2024 NFL season · January 11, 2025–January 13
Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win
2 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Texans beat the Chargers 32–12 in a game they win 46% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Chargers 12 Texans 32 Coin flip · Texans win 46% of replays 
Steelers 14 
Ravens 28 Deserved · Ravens win 94% of replays 
Broncos 7 
Bills 31 Deserved · Bills win 90% of replays 
Packers 10 
Eagles 22 Deserved · Eagles win 84% of replays 
Commanders 23 
Buccaneers 20 Coin flip · Commanders win 47% of replays 
Vikings 9 
Rams 27 Deserved · Rams win 66% of replays Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texans | W 32–12 vs Chargers | 46% | +54 |
| 2 | Commanders | W 23–20 @ Buccaneers | 47% | +53 |
| 3 | Rams | W 27–9 vs Vikings | 66% | +34 |
| 4 | Eagles | W 22–10 vs Packers | 84% | +16 |
| 5 | Bills | W 31–7 vs Broncos | 90% | +10 |
| 6 | Ravens | W 28–14 vs Steelers | 94% | +6 |
| 7 | Steelers | L 14–28 @ Ravens | 6% | −6 |
| 8 | Broncos | L 7–31 @ Bills | 10% | −10 |
| 9 | Packers | L 10–22 @ Eagles | 16% | −16 |
| 10 | Vikings | L 9–27 @ Rams | 34% | −34 |
| 11 | Buccaneers | L 20–23 vs Commanders | 53% | −53 |
| 12 | Chargers | L 12–32 @ Texans | 54% | −54 |