luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · January 11, 2025–January 13

Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win

1 of 6 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Commanders beat the Buccaneers 23–20 in a game they win 33% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Wild Card 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Texans 32–12 vs Chargers 41% 47% Coin flip
Commanders 23–20 @ Buccaneers 41% 33% Lucky
Rams 27–9 vs Vikings 43% 81% Deserved

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Commanders W 23–20 @ Buccaneers 33% +67
2 Texans W 32–12 vs Chargers 47% +53
3 Rams W 27–9 vs Vikings 81% +19
4 Eagles W 22–10 vs Packers 93% +7
5 Bills W 31–7 vs Broncos 96% +4
6 Ravens W 28–14 vs Steelers 97% +3
7 Steelers L 14–28 @ Ravens 3% −3
8 Broncos L 7–31 @ Bills 4% −4
9 Packers L 10–22 @ Eagles 7% −7
10 Vikings L 9–27 @ Rams 19% −19
11 Chargers L 12–32 @ Texans 53% −53
12 Buccaneers L 20–23 vs Commanders 67% −67