Texans 14 
Chiefs 23 Coin flip · Chiefs win 46% of replays 2024 NFL season · January 18, 2025–January 19
Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win
No winner of Divisional round was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Chiefs won 23–14 and take 46% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Texans 14 Chiefs 23 Coin flip · Chiefs win 46% of replays 
Commanders 45 
Lions 31 Replays agree · Commanders win 77% of replays Off day for the Lions 68% to win a fresh game, 23% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Rams 22 
Eagles 28 Replays agree · Eagles win 71% of replays 
Ravens 25 
Bills 27 Replays agree · Bills win 66% of replays Divisional round 2024 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 45–31 @ Lions | 26% | 77% | Deserved |
| Bills | 27–25 vs Ravens | 46% | 66% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 23–14 vs Texans | 46% | +54 |
| 2 | Bills | W 27–25 vs Ravens | 66% | +34 |
| 3 | Eagles | W 28–22 vs Rams | 71% | +29 |
| 4 | Commanders | W 45–31 @ Lions | 77% | +23 |
| 5 | Lions | L 31–45 vs Commanders | 23% | −23 |
| 6 | Rams | L 22–28 @ Eagles | 29% | −29 |
| 7 | Ravens | L 25–27 @ Bills | 34% | −34 |
| 8 | Texans | L 14–23 @ Chiefs | 54% | −54 |