luckadjusted

Divisional round 2024 · January 19, 2025

Ravens at Bills, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Ravens 27–25, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 4.5 points to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:33 left): M. Andrews dropped a catchable pass, worth 34 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 25
Buffalo Bills 27

January 19, 2025 · New Era Field · Closing line: Ravens −1.5

Luck index +46 Bills lucky · −46 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Bills win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 30 BUF 10
  2. 2 BAL 16 BUF 3
  3. 3 BAL 35 BUF 27
  4. 4 BAL 20 BUF 15
  5. 5 BAL 27 BUF 25
  6. 6 BAL 21 BUF 23
  7. 7 BAL 19 BUF 24
  8. 8 BAL 27 BUF 35
  9. 9 BAL 7 BUF 20
  10. 10 BAL 14 BUF 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 46% of them, Bills 54%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+9.1%
Ravens by 9–1613.2%
Ravens by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation7.0%
Bills by 1–823.8%
Bills by 9–1615.1%
Bills by 17+10.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Bass, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • T. Bass, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:46 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:56 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:13 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +6% BAL BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:30 The Bills converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% BAL BAL: Turnover
6 Q2 11:16 The Ravens fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% BUF BAL: Field goal
7 Q3 1:37 The Ravens’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% BUF BAL: Turnover
8 Q4 1:33 The Ravens’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedM. Andrews dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 205 catchable balls before this +34% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zay Flowers (BAL WR), out · 1.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 84% · Bills 16%

Final margin
Bills by 2
Luck in points
8.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 46% · Bills 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · Ravens · Bills

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