luckadjusted

Divisional round 2024 · January 18, 2025

Texans at Chiefs, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 23–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.3 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:56 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 14
Kansas City Chiefs 23

January 18, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −9.5

Luck index +53 Chiefs lucky · −53 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 HOU 19 KC 0
  2. 2 HOU 20 KC 6
  3. 3 HOU 30 KC 20
  4. 4 HOU 13 KC 7
  5. 5 HOU 23 KC 21
  6. 6 HOU 14 KC 16
  7. 7 HOU 7 KC 12
  8. 8 HOU 17 KC 26
  9. 9 HOU 7 KC 20
  10. 10 HOU 0 KC 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 53% of them, Chiefs 47%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+10.3%
Texans by 9–1615.7%
Texans by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation6.7%
Chiefs by 1–823.4%
Chiefs by 9–1613.8%
Chiefs by 17+7.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds missed · 53% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 48 yds made · 66% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds blocked · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 2373 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q1 3:15 The Texans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q2 9:56 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
4 Q2 7:06 K. Fairbairn missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 45 of 63 from 45+ before +11% KC HOU: Field goal
5 Q3 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 1:52 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1633 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:57 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Spencer Shrader (KC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wanya Morris (KC T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 50% · Chiefs 50%

Final margin
Chiefs by 9
Luck in points
10.6 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 53% · Chiefs 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · Texans · Chiefs

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