luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Divisional round 2024 · January 18, 2025

Texans at Chiefs, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Texans 23–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:06 left): K. Fairbairn missed a 55-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Houston Texans 14
Kansas City Chiefs 23

January 18, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −9.5

Luck index +54 Chiefs lucky · −54 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 5, Chiefs win 5.

  1. 1 HOU 26 KC 5
  2. 2 HOU 19 KC 7
  3. 3 HOU 14 KC 6
  4. 4 HOU 17 KC 13
  5. 5 HOU 16 KC 14
  6. 6 HOU 24 KC 26
  7. 7 HOU 14 KC 19
  8. 8 HOU 14 KC 22
  9. 9 HOU 10 KC 23
  10. 10 HOU 6 KC 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 54% of them, Chiefs 46%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+9.2%
Texans by 9–1615.7%
Texans by 1–823.2%
Level after regulation7.4%
Chiefs by 1–823.3%
Chiefs by 9–1613.9%
Chiefs by 17+7.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.4 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 9, without the luck Chiefs by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 94% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds missed · 55% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 48 yds made · 66% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds blocked · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 8 for 82 yards, Chiefs 4 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 13 yards +4% KC +0.7 pts
Q1 7:16 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 7:00 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Will Anderson), 15 yards +6% KC +2.2 pts
Q2 0:33 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% KC +2.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 10 yards +1% KC +0.6 pts
Q3 11:37 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.6 pts
Q3 7:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards +6% KC +1.6 pts
Q3 5:46 Illegal Motion on the Texans (Irv Smith Jr.), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Joshua Williams), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 9 yards, wiping out the play +9% HOU +2.4 pts
Q3 1:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 15 yards +4% KC +1.8 pts
Q4 3:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Michael Danna), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 2373 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q1 7:00 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Will Anderson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1371 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +6% KC KC: Field goal
3 Q2 9:56 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
4 Q2 7:06 K. Fairbairn missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 45 of 63 from 45+ before +12% KC HOU: Field goal
5 Q3 4:36 The Texans missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeOffensive Holding on the Chiefs (Joshua Williams), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 2214 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% KC HOU: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 1:52 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1633 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:57 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Spencer Shrader (KC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wanya Morris (KC T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 38% · Chiefs 62%

Final margin
Chiefs by 9
Luck in points
8.4 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 54% · Chiefs 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · Texans · Chiefs

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