2024 season · final
Houston Texans, 2024: game by game
The Texans went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.0 wins. Luck cost them 0.0: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–5.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.
Every game
How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Colts | W 29–27 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | W 19–13 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 3 | @ Vikings | L 7–34 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 4 | vs Jaguars | W 24–20 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 5 | vs Bills | W 23–20 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 6 | @ Patriots | W 41–21 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 7 | @ Packers | L 22–24 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 8 | vs Colts | W 23–20 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 9 | @ Jets | L 13–21 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 10 | vs Lions | L 23–26 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 11 | @ Cowboys | W 34–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 12 | vs Titans | L 27–32 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 13 | @ Jaguars | W 23–20 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 15 | vs Dolphins | W 20–12 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 16 | @ Chiefs | L 19–27 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 17 | vs Ravens | L 2–31 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 18 | @ Titans | W 23–14 | 86% | +14 |
| Wild Card | vs Chargers | W 32–12 | 47% | +53 |
| Divisional round | @ Chiefs | L 14–23 | 54% | −54 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.57 | +2.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.14 | −3.2 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.4 |
| Injuries | −0.05 | −1.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.08 | −0.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.20 | −12.0 |
| Kicks | −1.40 | −9.8 |