luckadjusted

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Titans at Texans, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Texans 32–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:15 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 72 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 32
Houston Texans 27

November 24, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −8

Luck index +50 Titans lucky · −50 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 TEN 30 HOU 6
  2. 2 TEN 25 HOU 10
  3. 3 TEN 34 HOU 24
  4. 4 TEN 27 HOU 20
  5. 5 TEN 12 HOU 9
  6. 6 TEN 23 HOU 25
  7. 7 TEN 23 HOU 29
  8. 8 TEN 28 HOU 37
  9. 9 TEN 13 HOU 27
  10. 10 TEN 0 HOU 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 50% of them, Texans 50%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+13.6%
Titans by 9–1615.2%
Titans by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation4.6%
Texans by 1–819.4%
Texans by 9–1615.0%
Texans by 17+13.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 77% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 56 yds made · 69% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 77% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:31 The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +13% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:14 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3868 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q3 0:15 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +72% HOU TEN: Punt
4 Q4 12:13 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% TEN HOU: Punt
5 Q4 11:34 The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:34 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedT. Dell dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 96 catchable balls before this +11% TEN HOU: Punt
7 Q4 4:43 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +36% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 1:56 K. Fairbairn missed 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +39% TEN HOU: Safety

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 9% · Texans 91%

Final margin
Titans by 5
Luck in points
14.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 50% · Texans 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Titans · Texans

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