luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024

Titans at Texans, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Texans 32–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Titans win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 55 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 72% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:56 left): K. Fairbairn missed a 28-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Titans. The biggest single swing (Q3, 0:15 left): Return touchdown by the Texans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 32
Houston Texans 27

November 24, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −8

Luck index +45 Titans lucky · −45 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 TEN 39 HOU 14
  2. 2 TEN 42 HOU 24
  3. 3 TEN 36 HOU 23
  4. 4 TEN 22 HOU 13
  5. 5 TEN 26 HOU 20
  6. 6 TEN 21 HOU 19
  7. 7 TEN 5 HOU 7
  8. 8 TEN 23 HOU 30
  9. 9 TEN 10 HOU 23
  10. 10 TEN 8 HOU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 55% of them, Texans 45%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+17.3%
Titans by 9–1615.7%
Titans by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation2.6%
Texans by 1–818.1%
Texans by 9–1614.0%
Texans by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.6 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 5, without the luck Texans by 5.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 56 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 6 for 35 yards, Texans 11 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:00 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 5 yards +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q1 12:59 False Start on the Titans (Tony Pollard), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 1:57 Offensive Holding on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 10 yards +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Titans, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 13:22 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 8:03 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jerome Baker), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 5:39 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 15 yards +6% TEN +1.8 pts
Q3 12:14 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% TEN +2.3 pts
Q3 7:16 Delay of Game on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 2:40 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 12:13 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 12:13 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 5:29 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 10 yards +9% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 4:43 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +36% TEN +3.8 pts
Q4 3:04 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +7% TEN +1.2 pts
Q4 1:39 Illegal Blindside Block on the Texans (M.J. Stewart), 7 yards +7% TEN +0.5 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:29 The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU TEN: Punt
2 Q3 12:14 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3868 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q3 0:15 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +40% HOU TEN: Punt
4 Q4 11:34 The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU TEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:34 T. Dell dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 96 catchable balls before this +10% TEN HOU: Punt
6 Q4 5:29 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 468 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q4 4:43 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +36% TEN TEN: Punt
8 Q4 1:56 The game turned hereK. Fairbairn missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +39% TEN HOU: Safety

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 18% · Texans 82%

Final margin
Titans by 5
Luck in points
10.6 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Titans 55% · Texans 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · Titans · Texans

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