Week 12 2024 · November 25, 2024
Ravens at Chargers, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Chargers 30–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:43 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 30 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Ravens about even · −15 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Chargers win 1.
- 1 BAL 29 LAC 0
- 2 BAL 38 LAC 14
- 3 BAL 21 LAC 3
- 4 BAL 32 LAC 16
- 5 BAL 26 LAC 14
- 6 BAL 23 LAC 14
- 7 BAL 13 LAC 7
- 8 BAL 27 LAC 24
- 9 BAL 16 LAC 14
- 10 BAL 10 LAC 17
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 85% of them, Chargers 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 32.6% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 25.3% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 27.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 42 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Dicker, 52 yds made · 75% expected
- J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Dicker, 52 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Ravens 9 for 102 yards, Chargers 7 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:30 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% LAC +2.7 pts |
| Q1 5:02 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +3% BAL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 15 yards | +4% LAC +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:03 | False Start on the Chargers (Tuli Tuipulotu), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:00 | Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% LAC +1.9 pts |
| Q2 5:09 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +7% BAL +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 12 yards | +4% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:54 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +7% BAL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 1:56 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +3% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:16 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yards | +2% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:27 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +1% LAC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:08 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BAL +2.0 pts |
| Q4 1:29 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 12 yards | 0% LAC +2.1 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 15 yards | +1% LAC +2.7 pts |
| Q4 0:46 | Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL 0.0 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:30 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3472 snaps before, position avg 1 per 416 | +7% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 13:42 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 11:44 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 6:54 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 5:43 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +12% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 4:12 | C. Dicker made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 26 of 30 from 45+ before | +9% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:36 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:56 | Q. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 69 catchable balls before this | +8% BAL | LAC: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Cam Hart (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Roquan Smith (BAL LB), out · 0.8 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 90% · Chargers 10%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 85% · Chargers 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Ravens · 
Chargers
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 26% for the winner
- Cowboys at Commanders DAL 34–26 · replay 34% for the winner
- Lions at Colts DET 24–6 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 · replay 89% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 93% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 29–19 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 · replay 39% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eagles at Rams PHI 37–20 · replay 94% for the winner