Week 12 2024 · November 24, 2024
Cowboys at Commanders, Week 12 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys stole one. They beat the Commanders 34–26, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.1 points to the Cowboys.
Before kickoff the Commanders were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:21 left): the Commanders missed an extra point, worth 43 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 34 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Cowboys very lucky · −81 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 2, Commanders win 8.
- 1 DAL 37 WAS 23
- 2 DAL 34 WAS 30
- 3 DAL 41 WAS 43
- 4 DAL 20 WAS 26
- 5 DAL 24 WAS 32
- 6 DAL 30 WAS 41
- 7 DAL 30 WAS 44
- 8 DAL 24 WAS 43
- 9 DAL 20 WAS 44
- 10 DAL 24 WAS 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 19% of them, Commanders 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 3.0% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 5.2% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 10.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 41.0% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Cowboys by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 12.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Aubrey, 35 yds blocked · 94% expected
- A. Seibert, 41 yds made · 86% expected
- B. Aubrey, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
- A. Seibert, 51 yds missed · 66% expected
- B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 87% expected
- B. Aubrey, 48 yds made · 83% expected
- A. Seibert, 51 yds made · 65% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:36 | B. Aubrey had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 94% expected for him | +16% WAS | DAL: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:42 | B. Aubrey missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +12% WAS | DAL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 0:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1637 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +13% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 11:30 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedA. Ekeler dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 211 catchable balls before this | +15% DAL | WAS: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:23 | Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +13% WAS | WAS: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 3:02 | The Commanders’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams | +16% DAL | WAS: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:21 | The Commanders missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams | +43% DAL | WAS: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | The Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +13% DAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
- Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
- Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Jake Ferguson (DAL TE), out · 0.9 pts
- Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
- Tyler Smith (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
- Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 51% · Commanders 49%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 8
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 12.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 19% · Commanders 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2024 games · 
Cowboys · 
Commanders
More from Week 12 2024
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–19 · replay 28% for the winner
- Lions at Colts DET 24–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Panthers KC 30–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 30–27 · replay 79% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 34–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 30–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 · replay 50% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders DEN 29–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 16–6 · replay 39% for the winner
- 49ers at Packers GB 38–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eagles at Rams PHI 37–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 30–23 · replay 92% for the winner