NFC East
Washington Commanders: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Commanders have won 46.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 51.6. Luck cost them 5.1 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+1.5 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−3.1).
2026: 0–2 so far, replay wins 0.8 (−0.8 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0–2 | 0.8 | −0.8 | 0–1 | +0.37 | – |
| 2025 | 5–12 | 7.8 | −2.8 | 2–5 | +0.21 | – |
| 2024 | 12–5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 8–4 | −1.83 | 2–1 |
| 2023 | 4–13 | 7.1 | −3.1 | 4–6 | +0.33 | – |
| 2022 | 8–8–1 | 7.0 | +1.5 | 5–3–1 | −0.85 | – |
| 2021 | 7–10 | 7.2 | −0.2 | 5–4 | +0.53 | – |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 3–5 | +0.55 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 3–13 | 4.5 | −1.5 | 3–3 | +0.18 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Commanders take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 12 | vs Lions | W 19–16 | 13% | +87 |
| 2022 Week 7 | vs Packers | W 23–21 | 15% | +85 |
| 2021 Week 10 | vs Buccaneers | W 29–19 | 17% | +83 |
| 2024 Week 3 | @ Bengals | W 38–33 | 18% | +82 |
| 2023 Week 6 | @ Falcons | W 24–16 | 27% | +73 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Commanders would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Week 16 | @ Jets | L 28–30 | 91% | −91 |
| 2024 Week 10 | vs Steelers | L 27–28 | 86% | −86 |
| 2024 Week 12 | vs Cowboys | L 26–34 | 81% | −81 |
| 2023 Week 5 | vs Bears | L 20–40 | 78% | −78 |
| 2019 Week 15 | vs Eagles | L 27–37 | 72% | −72 |
