NFC East
Washington Commanders: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Commanders have won 46.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 50.5. Luck cost them 4.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+2.0 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.0).
2026: 2–5–1 so far, replay wins 3.5 (−1.0 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2–5–1 | 3.5 | −1.0 | 1–3–1 | −0.45 | – |
| 2025 | 5–12 | 8.0 | −3.0 | 2–5 | +0.45 | – |
| 2024 | 12–5 | 12.3 | −0.3 | 8–4 | −0.87 | 2–1 |
| 2023 | 4–13 | 6.2 | −2.2 | 4–6 | +0.30 | – |
| 2022 | 8–8–1 | 6.5 | +2.0 | 5–3–1 | −0.86 | – |
| 2021 | 7–10 | 7.1 | −0.1 | 5–4 | +0.36 | – |
| 2020 | 7–9 | 5.9 | +1.1 | 3–5 | +0.51 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 3–13 | 4.5 | −1.5 | 3–3 | −0.25 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −3.0 | −0.64 | −0.61 | +0.25 | +0.23 | −0.65 | 0.00 |
| 2024 | −0.3 | +0.05 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.36 | +0.24 |
| 2023 | −2.2 | −0.23 | −0.89 | −0.21 | +0.15 | +0.38 | 0.00 |
| 2022 | +2.0 | +0.45 | −0.32 | +1.23 | −0.43 | +0.25 | +0.33 |
| 2021 | −0.1 | +0.26 | −0.28 | 0.00 | +0.18 | −0.34 | −0.21 |
| 2020 | +1.1 | −0.03 | −0.18 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.48 | +0.25 |
| 2019 | −1.5 | −0.54 | +0.16 | 0.00 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.69 |
| Since 2019 | −4.0 | −0.68 | −1.71 | +1.27 | −0.18 | +0.45 | −0.09 |
Are the Commanders lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Commanders have won 46.5 regular-season games from play worth 50.5: −4.0 wins of luck, the 8th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Commanders had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from kicks (−1.7 wins) and fumble bounces (−0.7 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 30–30–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 29.5 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Commanders’ luckiest season?
2022: 8–8–1 from play worth 6.5 wins, +2.0 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 5–12 from play worth 8.0 (−3.0).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Commanders’ luckiest wins
Wins the Commanders take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 7 | vs Packers | W 23–21 | 8% | +92 |
| 2019 Week 12 | vs Lions | W 19–16 | 11% | +89 |
| 2021 Week 10 | vs Buccaneers | W 29–19 | 18% | +82 |
| 2024 Week 3 | @ Bengals | W 38–33 | 26% | +74 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Seahawks | W 33–31 | 26% | +74 |
The Commanders’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Commanders would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 10 | vs Steelers | L 27–28 | 95% | −95 |
| 2023 Week 16 | @ Jets | L 28–30 | 91% | −91 |
| 2025 Week 17 | vs Cowboys | L 23–30 | 82% | −82 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Colts | L 13–30 | 74% | −74 |
| 2019 Week 15 | vs Eagles | L 27–37 | 70% | −70 |
