luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Commanders at Jets, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets stole one. They beat the Commanders 30–28, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 6.0 points to the Jets.

The Jets won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:10 left): G. Zuerlein made 54-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Washington Commanders 28
New York Jets 30

December 24, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3

Luck index +91 Jets very lucky · −91 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 WAS 50 NYJ 15
  2. 2 WAS 46 NYJ 19
  3. 3 WAS 43 NYJ 20
  4. 4 WAS 20 NYJ 0
  5. 5 WAS 33 NYJ 17
  6. 6 WAS 33 NYJ 20
  7. 7 WAS 19 NYJ 10
  8. 8 WAS 33 NYJ 27
  9. 9 WAS 23 NYJ 21
  10. 10 WAS 10 NYJ 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Jets won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

49 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.05 worse by 0.15
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.10 better by 0.18
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 −0.04 worse by 0.04
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.03 better by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 91% of them, Jets 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+56.8%
Commanders by 9–1619.3%
Commanders by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
Jets by 1–85.8%
Jets by 9–162.3%
Jets by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 4.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 54 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% NYJ WAS: Punt
2 Q1 11:29 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 9:41 J. Bates dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 37 catchable balls before this +5% NYJ WAS: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:40 Face Mask on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3541 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:56 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 1:07 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
7 Q4 0:13 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% WAS NYJ: Field goal
8 Q4 0:10 G. Zuerlein made 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 49 of 70 from 45+ before +30% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinton Jefferson (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 28% · Jets 72%

Final margin
Jets by 2
Luck in points
2.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 91% · Jets 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Commanders · Jets

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