luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Cowboys at Dolphins, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Cowboys 22–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:23 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (DeShon Elliott), 3 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
Miami Dolphins 22

December 24, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −1.5

Luck index +26 Dolphins lucky · −26 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Dolphins win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 38 MIA 23
  2. 2 DAL 38 MIA 31
  3. 3 DAL 27 MIA 24
  4. 4 DAL 21 MIA 23
  5. 5 DAL 13 MIA 17
  6. 6 DAL 35 MIA 42
  7. 7 DAL 17 MIA 27
  8. 8 DAL 16 MIA 30
  9. 9 DAL 13 MIA 31
  10. 10 DAL 14 MIA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 26% of them, Dolphins 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+3.0%
Cowboys by 9–166.5%
Cowboys by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation4.8%
Dolphins by 1–827.2%
Dolphins by 9–1622.7%
Dolphins by 17+21.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 2, without the luck Cowboys by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 57 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. Sanders, 52 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 59% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Sanders, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Sanders, 29 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 38 yards, Dolphins 5 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:45 False Start on the Cowboys (Peyton Hendershot), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.6 pts
Q1 6:32 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 10:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 3 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +1.2 pts
Q2 9:20 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 15 yards +7% DAL +2.5 pts
Q2 4:31 False Start on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:26 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards +2% MIA +0.3 pts
Q3 6:34 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% MIA +1.8 pts
Q4 13:52 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins, 5 yards +6% DAL +1.2 pts
Q4 11:48 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DAL +0.8 pts
Q4 4:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (DeShon Elliott), 3 yards +18% DAL +3.5 pts
Q4 3:27 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Damone Clark), 15 yards +9% MIA +1.8 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:22 The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +8% DAL DAL: Turnover
2 Q1 7:22 The Cowboys fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIA DAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:25 The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (DeShon Elliott), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 3351 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +18% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:33 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:27 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Damone Clark), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1277 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q4 1:42 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +12% MIA MIA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jerome Baker (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Hunt (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 70% · Dolphins 30%

Final margin
Dolphins by 2
Luck in points
4.5 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 26% · Dolphins 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Cowboys · Dolphins

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