2023 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2023: game by game
The Cowboys went 12–5 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Giants | W 40–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Jets | W 30–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 3 | @ Cardinals | L 16–28 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 4 | vs Patriots | W 38–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ 49ers | L 10–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 6 | @ Chargers | W 20–17 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 8 | vs Rams | W 43–20 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 9 | @ Eagles | L 23–28 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 10 | vs Giants | W 49–17 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Panthers | W 33–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 12 | vs Commanders | W 45–10 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 13 | vs Seahawks | W 41–35 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 14 | vs Eagles | W 33–13 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 15 | @ Bills | L 10–31 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 16 | @ Dolphins | L 20–22 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 17 | vs Lions | W 20–19 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 18 | @ Commanders | W 38–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Wild Card | vs Packers | L 32–48 | 20% | −20 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.48 | +3.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.39 | +21.2 |
| Kicks | +0.26 | +9.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.14 | +2.6 |
| Drops | −0.45 | −4.7 |