luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Cowboys at Panthers, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Panthers 33–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:14 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 33
Carolina Panthers 10

November 19, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −11

Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 33 CAR 3
  2. 2 DAL 33 CAR 10
  3. 3 DAL 28 CAR 9
  4. 4 DAL 30 CAR 14
  5. 5 DAL 30 CAR 17
  6. 6 DAL 18 CAR 7
  7. 7 DAL 25 CAR 16
  8. 8 DAL 19 CAR 13
  9. 9 DAL 15 CAR 13
  10. 10 DAL 10 CAR 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 94% of them, Panthers 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+52.3%
Cowboys by 9–1623.7%
Cowboys by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation1.5%
Panthers by 1–84.4%
Panthers by 9–161.1%
Panthers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 19.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:37 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q1 9:05 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% DAL CAR: Punt
3 Q1 4:35 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 28 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 3113 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
5 Q2 4:14 The Panthers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
6 Q2 1:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Amare Barno), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 406 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:01 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:58 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +6% DAL CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (CAR CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 23
Luck in points
3.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 19.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 94% · Panthers 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Cowboys · Panthers

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