luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 16, 2023

Bengals at Ravens, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 34–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:33 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 20
Baltimore Ravens 34

November 16, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 30 BAL 23
  2. 2 CIN 28 BAL 30
  3. 3 CIN 9 BAL 14
  4. 4 CIN 20 BAL 27
  5. 5 CIN 27 BAL 38
  6. 6 CIN 10 BAL 23
  7. 7 CIN 24 BAL 41
  8. 8 CIN 17 BAL 38
  9. 9 CIN 16 BAL 41
  10. 10 CIN 16 BAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 8% of them, Ravens 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.3%
Bengals by 9–161.8%
Bengals by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation0.7%
Ravens by 1–816.0%
Ravens by 9–1621.3%
Ravens by 17+54.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 14, without the luck Ravens by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • E. McPherson, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 9 for 78 yards, Ravens 9 for 110 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:49 Face Mask on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 15 yards +2% CIN +1.4 pts
Q1 6:48 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 2:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 15 yards +3% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 7 yards +3% BAL +0.5 pts
Q2 9:37 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 6:48 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 5:15 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards +3% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards +3% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:38 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.3 pts
Q2 1:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 13 yards +6% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +1.3 pts
Q2 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 28 yards +6% BAL +1.1 pts
Q3 11:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Rock Ya-Sin), 34 yards +8% CIN +3.1 pts
Q3 11:26 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 4:02 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.5 pts
Q4 11:46 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 11 yards +1% CIN +1.6 pts
Q4 7:45 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.7 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.7 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:05 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:33 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:32 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:29 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3521 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CIN CIN: End of half
7 Q2 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 28 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 456 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Rock Ya-Sin), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% CIN CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 1% · Ravens 99%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
1.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 8% · Ravens 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Bengals · Ravens

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