luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 16, 2023

Bengals at Ravens, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 34–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.9 points to the Bengals.

An off day for the Bengals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:29 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 20
Baltimore Ravens 34

November 16, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +4 Ravens about even · −4 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 CIN 26 BAL 28
  2. 2 CIN 27 BAL 31
  3. 3 CIN 16 BAL 24
  4. 4 CIN 24 BAL 35
  5. 5 CIN 17 BAL 30
  6. 6 CIN 12 BAL 28
  7. 7 CIN 27 BAL 45
  8. 8 CIN 20 BAL 42
  9. 9 CIN 7 BAL 34
  10. 10 CIN 10 BAL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

33 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.12 worse by 0.12
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.10 worse by 0.05
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.12 better by 0.04
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 −0.00 worse by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 4% of them, Ravens 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.1%
Bengals by 9–160.6%
Bengals by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.7%
Ravens by 1–810.0%
Ravens by 9–1619.7%
Ravens by 17+65.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 16.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 50 yds made · 78% expected
  • E. McPherson, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:05 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:27 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:33 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:32 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:29 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3521 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CIN CIN: End of half
8 Q3 11:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Rock Ya-Sin), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% CIN CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 1% · Ravens 99%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
2.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 4% · Ravens 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Bengals · Ravens

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