luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Vikings at Broncos, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Vikings 21–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.7 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 15 yards, worth 40 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 20
Denver Broncos 21

November 19, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +17 Broncos about even · −17 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 23 DEN 9
  2. 2 MIN 23 DEN 20
  3. 3 MIN 31 DEN 33
  4. 4 MIN 19 DEN 23
  5. 5 MIN 9 DEN 16
  6. 6 MIN 17 DEN 27
  7. 7 MIN 14 DEN 27
  8. 8 MIN 21 DEN 38
  9. 9 MIN 3 DEN 24
  10. 10 MIN 0 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 17% of them, Broncos 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+1.7%
Vikings by 9–164.4%
Vikings by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Broncos by 1–825.6%
Broncos by 9–1623.5%
Broncos by 17+33.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 3.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • W. Lutz, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Joseph, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% DEN MIN: Punt
2 Q3 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 19 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2658 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +28% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:01 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:44 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedJ. Jeudy dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 114 catchable balls before this +16% MIN DEN: Field goal
5 Q4 9:25 The Vikings converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +18% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q4 2:27 The Broncos converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:28 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 820 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +40% DEN MIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:23 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 253rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +12% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.1 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.7 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 30% · Broncos 70%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
4.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 17% · Broncos 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Vikings · Broncos

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