luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Vikings at Broncos, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Vikings 21–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: drops alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:28 left): Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 15 yards, worth 40 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 20
Denver Broncos 21

November 19, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +17 Broncos about even · −17 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 27 DEN 13
  2. 2 MIN 20 DEN 16
  3. 3 MIN 25 DEN 27
  4. 4 MIN 14 DEN 19
  5. 5 MIN 19 DEN 26
  6. 6 MIN 19 DEN 29
  7. 7 MIN 9 DEN 23
  8. 8 MIN 23 DEN 40
  9. 9 MIN 7 DEN 27
  10. 10 MIN 13 DEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 17% of them, Broncos 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+1.5%
Vikings by 9–164.2%
Vikings by 1–810.2%
Level after regulation1.5%
Broncos by 1–820.2%
Broncos by 9–1626.0%
Broncos by 17+36.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 1, without the luck Vikings by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Lutz, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Joseph, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 6 for 55 yards, Broncos 4 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:56 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 10 yards +7% DEN +1.8 pts
Q2 2:28 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% DEN +1.9 pts
Q3 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Nate Adkins), 10 yards 0% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 9:25 False Start on the Vikings (Brandon Powell), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.7 pts
Q3 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 19 yards, wiping out the play +28% MIN +6.3 pts
Q4 13:43 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 4 yards · pre-snap +6% MIN +1.1 pts
Q4 12:40 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 10 yards +3% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 11:52 Face Mask on the Broncos (Marvin Mims), 15 yards +7% MIN +1.6 pts
Q4 8:37 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 0:28 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 15 yards +31% DEN +1.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:28 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q3 9:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 19 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2658 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +28% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:01 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:37 The Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +9% DEN MIN: Field goal
5 Q4 10:44 J. Jeudy dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 114 catchable balls before this +15% MIN DEN: Field goal
6 Q4 9:25 The Vikings converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +14% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 2:27 The Broncos converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:28 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 820 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +40% DEN MIN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.1 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.7 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 27% · Broncos 73%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
3.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 17% · Broncos 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Vikings · Broncos

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