2023 season · final
Denver Broncos, 2023: game by game
The Broncos went 8–9 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.4 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often the Broncos win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Raiders | L 16–17 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 2 | vs Commanders | L 33–35 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 3 | @ Dolphins | L 20–70 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 4 | @ Bears | W 31–28 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 5 | vs Jets | L 21–31 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 6 | @ Chiefs | L 8–19 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 7 | vs Packers | W 19–17 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 8 | vs Chiefs | W 24–9 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 10 | @ Bills | W 24–22 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 11 | vs Vikings | W 21–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 12 | vs Browns | W 29–12 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 13 | @ Texans | L 17–22 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 14 | @ Chargers | W 24–7 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 15 | @ Lions | L 17–42 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 16 | vs Patriots | L 23–26 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 17 | vs Chargers | W 16–9 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 18 | @ Raiders | L 14–27 | 19% | −19 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Broncos’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.69 | +24.9 |
| Judgment calls | +0.46 | +5.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.22 | +8.1 |
| Kicks | −0.04 | −2.8 |
| Drops | −0.20 | +1.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.60 | −18.0 |