luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Commanders at Broncos, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Broncos 35–33, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): the Broncos’ two-point try failed, worth 27 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 35
Denver Broncos 33

September 17, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −4

Luck index +54 Commanders lucky · −54 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 37 DEN 14
  2. 2 WAS 33 DEN 19
  3. 3 WAS 20 DEN 10
  4. 4 WAS 17 DEN 12
  5. 5 WAS 26 DEN 24
  6. 6 WAS 14 DEN 17
  7. 7 WAS 6 DEN 13
  8. 8 WAS 34 DEN 45
  9. 9 WAS 10 DEN 25
  10. 10 WAS 6 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 46% of them, Broncos 54%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+11.0%
Commanders by 9–1614.0%
Commanders by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation5.4%
Broncos by 1–821.8%
Broncos by 9–1616.1%
Broncos by 17+11.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 3.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 49 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Slye, 59 yds missed · 55% expected
  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:07 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% DEN WAS: Missed field goal
3 Q1 10:22 J. Slye missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 32 of 47 from 45+ before +8% DEN WAS: Field goal
4 Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q3 6:17 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q3 2:56 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% WAS DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 11:17 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 3043 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:00 The Broncos’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +27% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Dulcich (DEN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 39% · Broncos 61%

Final margin
Commanders by 2
Luck in points
5.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 46% · Broncos 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Commanders · Broncos

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