luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Ravens at Bengals, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:31 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 17 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 27
Cincinnati Bengals 24

September 17, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +46 Ravens lucky · −46 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Bengals win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 26 CIN 7
  2. 2 BAL 26 CIN 13
  3. 3 BAL 24 CIN 16
  4. 4 BAL 19 CIN 14
  5. 5 BAL 14 CIN 12
  6. 6 BAL 21 CIN 23
  7. 7 BAL 13 CIN 17
  8. 8 BAL 16 CIN 23
  9. 9 BAL 6 CIN 17
  10. 10 BAL 10 CIN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 54% of them, Bengals 46%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+8.2%
Ravens by 9–1614.4%
Ravens by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation7.8%
Bengals by 1–823.9%
Bengals by 9–1613.3%
Bengals by 17+7.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 59 yds missed · 61% expected
  • J. Tucker, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 40 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:23 J. Tucker missed 59-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 44 of 56 from 45+ before +10% CIN BAL: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Zachary Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 575 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +9% BAL BAL: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 13:31 Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +17% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 0:49 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% CIN CIN: Punt
6 Q4 11:42 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:32 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:35 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joseph Ossai (CIN DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jackson Carman (CIN G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tyler Linderbaum (BAL C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 82% · Bengals 18%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
7.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 54% · Bengals 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Ravens · Bengals

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