luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Giants at Cardinals, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Cardinals 31–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Giants were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:54 left): Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

New York Giants 31
Arizona Cardinals 28

September 17, 2023 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Giants −5

Luck index +16 Giants about even · −16 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Cardinals win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 40 ARI 10
  2. 2 NYG 37 ARI 14
  3. 3 NYG 28 ARI 10
  4. 4 NYG 31 ARI 17
  5. 5 NYG 27 ARI 16
  6. 6 NYG 27 ARI 19
  7. 7 NYG 19 ARI 14
  8. 8 NYG 23 ARI 20
  9. 9 NYG 24 ARI 28
  10. 10 NYG 21 ARI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 84% of them, Cardinals 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+38.5%
Giants by 9–1624.7%
Giants by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cardinals by 1–810.4%
Cardinals by 9–164.0%
Cardinals by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 3, without the luck Giants by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 55 yds missed · 69% expected
  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Prater, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • G. Gano, 34 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 9 for 75 yards, Cardinals 8 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:12 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q1 10:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 15 yards +3% ARI +1.8 pts
Q1 7:52 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 13:58 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Kris Boyd), 10 yards 0% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 10:43 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 15 yards +1% ARI +1.0 pts
Q2 2:25 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 10 yards +1% NYG +1.1 pts
Q3 10:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +5.1 pts
Q3 4:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 7 yards 0% NYG +1.0 pts
Q3 2:13 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 8:57 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 8:51 False Start on the Giants (Parris Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q4 8:08 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 4:54 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +20% ARI +2.6 pts
Q4 3:11 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 3:11 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.3 pts
Q4 0:02 False Start on the Cardinals (Joshua Dobbs), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.1 pts
Q4 0:02 Defensive Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.1 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 M. Prater missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 36 of 51 from 45+ before +7% NYG ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:24 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:39 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3822 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:51 The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Giants (Parris Campbell), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 1499 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +5% ARI ARI: Punt
6 Q4 8:08 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% NYG ARI: Punt
7 Q4 4:54 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +20% ARI ARI: Punt
8 Q4 3:11 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% NYG ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 4.2 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI SS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kelvin Beachum (ARI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Leki Fotu (ARI DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darnay Holmes (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 83% · Cardinals 17%

Final margin
Giants by 3
Luck in points
1.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 84% · Cardinals 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Giants · Cardinals

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