luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Dolphins at Patriots, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 24–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 7.0 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:10 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 24
New England Patriots 17

September 17, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2

Luck index +12 Dolphins about even · −12 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 MIA 42 NE 9
  2. 2 MIA 37 NE 12
  3. 3 MIA 41 NE 20
  4. 4 MIA 34 NE 17
  5. 5 MIA 26 NE 13
  6. 6 MIA 27 NE 17
  7. 7 MIA 27 NE 20
  8. 8 MIA 23 NE 19
  9. 9 MIA 16 NE 14
  10. 10 MIA 23 NE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 88% of them, Patriots 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+47.9%
Dolphins by 9–1621.3%
Dolphins by 1–818.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–86.7%
Patriots by 9–163.3%
Patriots by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 11.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds blocked · 71% expected
  • J. Sanders, 55 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:10 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% MIA NE: Punt
2 Q2 14:28 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:26 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% NE NE: Turnover
5 Q4 10:04 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% NE MIA: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:56 J. Smith-Schuster dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 106 catchable balls before this +5% MIA NE: Punt
7 Q4 2:19 J. Sanders missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 44 of 65 from 45+ before +9% NE MIA: End of game
8 Q4 1:00 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Thornton (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 95% · Patriots 5%

Final margin
Dolphins by 7
Luck in points
4.0 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 88% · Patriots 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Dolphins · Patriots

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