luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Dolphins at Patriots, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 24–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:19 left): J. Sanders missed a 55-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Miami Dolphins 24
New England Patriots 17

September 17, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2

Luck index +12 Dolphins about even · −12 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 MIA 42 NE 10
  2. 2 MIA 37 NE 13
  3. 3 MIA 41 NE 21
  4. 4 MIA 34 NE 17
  5. 5 MIA 27 NE 14
  6. 6 MIA 43 NE 33
  7. 7 MIA 34 NE 26
  8. 8 MIA 16 NE 10
  9. 9 MIA 17 NE 14
  10. 10 MIA 17 NE 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 88% of them, Patriots 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+48.3%
Dolphins by 9–1621.6%
Dolphins by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Patriots by 1–87.0%
Patriots by 9–163.1%
Patriots by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Dolphins by 7, without the luck Dolphins by 9.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Ryland, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • J. Sanders, 55 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 6 for 46 yards, Patriots 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins, 10 yards +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q2 10:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.3 pts
Q2 5:51 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jabrill Peppers), 10 yards +3% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +6% MIA +1.5 pts
Q2 2:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Bradley Chubb), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 4:50 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NE +1.9 pts
Q4 12:24 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards +1% NE +0.8 pts
Q4 11:21 Illegal Formation on the Patriots (Chris Board), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 8:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Eli Apple), 8 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +0.3 pts
Q4 8:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Eli Apple), 8 yards 0% NE +0.7 pts
Q4 4:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Marte Mapu), 15 yards +2% MIA +1.2 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:10 The Patriots fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIA NE: Punt
2 Q2 14:28 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:54 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:39 J. Sanders had a 49-yard field goal blockedKicks · 70% expected for him, 44 of 64 from 45+ before +4% NE MIA: Punt
5 Q3 1:26 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q4 10:04 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% NE MIA: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:19 J. Sanders missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 44 of 65 from 45+ before +9% NE MIA: End of game
8 Q4 1:00 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Thornton (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 93% · Patriots 7%

Final margin
Dolphins by 7
Luck in points
2.5 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 9.5
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 88% · Patriots 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Dolphins · Patriots

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