luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 18, 2023

Saints at Panthers, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:52 left): the Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 20
Carolina Panthers 17

September 18, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Saints −3

Luck index +10 Saints about even · −10 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 NO 37 CAR 7
  2. 2 NO 31 CAR 9
  3. 3 NO 22 CAR 3
  4. 4 NO 26 CAR 10
  5. 5 NO 37 CAR 24
  6. 6 NO 27 CAR 17
  7. 7 NO 28 CAR 20
  8. 8 NO 32 CAR 26
  9. 9 NO 26 CAR 23
  10. 10 NO 20 CAR 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 90% of them, Panthers 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+48.2%
Saints by 9–1624.3%
Saints by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation1.8%
Panthers by 1–86.1%
Panthers by 9–162.2%
Panthers by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Grupe, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:55 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q2 3:16 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% CAR NO: Punt
3 Q2 1:52 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% NO CAR: End of half
4 Q3 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +15% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q3 9:15 E. Pineiro made 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 16 of 18 from 45+ before +7% CAR CAR: Punt
6 Q3 7:22 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1877 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
8 Q4 6:20 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +12% NO CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 84% · Panthers 16%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
2.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Saints 90% · Panthers 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Saints · Panthers

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