luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Colts at Texans, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Texans 31–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.7 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:23 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 31
Houston Texans 20

September 17, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +23 Colts about even · −23 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 IND 28 HOU 0
  2. 2 IND 38 HOU 17
  3. 3 IND 29 HOU 13
  4. 4 IND 33 HOU 21
  5. 5 IND 23 HOU 14
  6. 6 IND 23 HOU 17
  7. 7 IND 24 HOU 20
  8. 8 IND 29 HOU 26
  9. 9 IND 13 HOU 16
  10. 10 IND 6 HOU 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 77% of them, Texans 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+25.5%
Colts by 9–1622.3%
Colts by 1–826.2%
Level after regulation3.7%
Texans by 1–813.0%
Texans by 9–166.5%
Texans by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 5.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:47 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:23 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% IND HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:04 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:19 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:57 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 7:06 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:41 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q3 11:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% HOU HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 88% · Texans 12%

Final margin
Colts by 11
Luck in points
5.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 77% · Texans 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Colts · Texans

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