2023 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2023: game by game
The Colts went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jaguars | L 21–31 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 2 | @ Texans | W 31–20 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 3 | @ Ravens | W 22–19 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 4 | vs Rams | L 23–29 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 5 | vs Titans | W 23–16 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 6 | @ Jaguars | L 20–37 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 7 | vs Browns | L 38–39 | 90% | −90 |
| Week 8 | vs Saints | L 27–38 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 9 | @ Panthers | W 27–13 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 10 | vs Patriots | W 10–6 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 12 | vs Buccaneers | W 27–20 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 13 | @ Titans | W 31–28 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 14 | @ Bengals | L 14–34 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 15 | vs Steelers | W 30–13 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 16 | @ Falcons | L 10–29 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 17 | vs Raiders | W 23–20 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 18 | vs Texans | L 19–23 | 62% | −62 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.47 | −13.1 |
| Injuries | +0.08 | +2.9 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.0 |
| Drops | −0.15 | −18.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.24 | +2.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.73 | −16.6 |