luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Indianapolis Colts, 2023: game by game

The Colts went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.

Every game

How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Jaguars L 21–31 4% −4
Week 2 @ Texans W 31–20 77% +23
Week 3 @ Ravens W 22–19 33% +67
Week 4 vs Rams L 23–29 23% −23
Week 5 vs Titans W 23–16 50% +50
Week 6 @ Jaguars L 20–37 17% −17
Week 7 vs Browns L 38–39 89% −89
Week 8 vs Saints L 27–38 12% −12
Week 9 @ Panthers W 27–13 80% +20
Week 10 @ Patriots W 10–6 77% +23
Week 12 vs Buccaneers W 27–20 64% +36
Week 13 @ Titans W 31–28 78% +22
Week 14 @ Bengals L 14–34 12% −12
Week 15 vs Steelers W 30–13 96% +4
Week 16 @ Falcons L 10–29 8% −8
Week 17 vs Raiders W 23–20 60% +40
Week 18 vs Texans L 19–23 66% −66

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Colts’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+4.7+0.28
Injuries+4.0+0.24
Rest+1.0+0.06
3rd & 4th downs−4.5−0.26
Drops−7.8−0.46
Kicks−12.5−0.74
Fumble bounces−12.6−0.74