luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Colts at Jaguars, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 37–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:20 left): Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 37

October 15, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −4

Luck index +14 Jaguars about even · −14 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 IND 27 JAX 18
  2. 2 IND 27 JAX 29
  3. 3 IND 18 JAX 24
  4. 4 IND 10 JAX 20
  5. 5 IND 17 JAX 30
  6. 6 IND 17 JAX 33
  7. 7 IND 9 JAX 29
  8. 8 IND 17 JAX 38
  9. 9 IND 14 JAX 40
  10. 10 IND 10 JAX 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 14% of them, Jaguars 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+1.4%
Colts by 9–163.0%
Colts by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jaguars by 1–817.3%
Jaguars by 9–1620.7%
Jaguars by 17+47.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.2 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 17, without the luck Jaguars by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. McManus, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. McManus, 51 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 6 for 46 yards, Jaguars 5 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% JAX +1.3 pts
Q1 0:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.4 pts
Q2 13:20 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% IND +3.1 pts
Q2 10:52 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Jaguars (Daniel Thomas), 5 yards +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 10:42 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 8 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +1.6 pts
Q3 14:46 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Grant Stuard), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 11:55 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 7:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 4 yards 0% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Julius Brents), 14 yards +1% JAX +1.8 pts
Q4 13:24 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.2 pts
Q4 3:14 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.8 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:51 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q1 6:38 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% JAX IND: Field goal
3 Q1 4:02 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% IND JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:21 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 4204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:17 The Colts fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% JAX IND: Punt
7 Q2 13:20 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 1252 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +8% IND IND: Punt
8 Q2 4:54 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +5% IND IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Walker Little (JAX T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 19% · Jaguars 81%

Final margin
Jaguars by 17
Luck in points
12.2 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Colts 14% · Jaguars 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Colts · Jaguars

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