luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Commanders at Falcons, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Falcons 24–16, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:17 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 27 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 24
Atlanta Falcons 16

October 15, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +73 Commanders very lucky · −73 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 30 ATL 13
  2. 2 WAS 19 ATL 12
  3. 3 WAS 19 ATL 16
  4. 4 WAS 17 ATL 19
  5. 5 WAS 10 ATL 15
  6. 6 WAS 19 ATL 27
  7. 7 WAS 10 ATL 23
  8. 8 WAS 6 ATL 22
  9. 9 WAS 12 ATL 32
  10. 10 WAS 13 ATL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 27% of them, Falcons 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+3.9%
Commanders by 9–167.4%
Commanders by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.5%
Falcons by 1–824.4%
Falcons by 9–1620.3%
Falcons by 17+25.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:15 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 8:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:23 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% WAS ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 2:36 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q3 13:03 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% WAS ATL: Punt
6 Q4 6:56 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 3122 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +22% ATL ATL: Turnover
7 Q4 5:17 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +27% WAS ATL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:31 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jeremy Reaves (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Commanders by 8
Luck in points
8.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 27% · Falcons 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Commanders · Falcons

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