luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Commanders at Falcons, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Falcons 24–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:56 left): Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Washington Commanders 24
Atlanta Falcons 16

October 15, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +54 Commanders lucky · −54 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Falcons win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 23 ATL 3
  2. 2 WAS 23 ATL 10
  3. 3 WAS 22 ATL 13
  4. 4 WAS 37 ATL 31
  5. 5 WAS 23 ATL 21
  6. 6 WAS 13 ATL 16
  7. 7 WAS 20 ATL 26
  8. 8 WAS 6 ATL 17
  9. 9 WAS 6 ATL 22
  10. 10 WAS 7 ATL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 46% of them, Falcons 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+9.9%
Commanders by 9–1614.3%
Commanders by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation5.6%
Falcons by 1–821.7%
Falcons by 9–1614.9%
Falcons by 17+12.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Commanders by 8, without the luck Commanders by 12.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 47 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 40 yards, Falcons 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:27 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q2 6:14 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Jeff Okudah), 5 yards 0% ATL +0.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Desmond Ridder), 16 yards +6% WAS +1.2 pts
Q2 0:48 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 1:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 9 yards +5% ATL +1.7 pts
Q4 12:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Chase Young), 3 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 12:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 1 yard 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q4 6:56 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the play +21% ATL +4.1 pts
Q4 5:30 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 2 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 5:17 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.9 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 11:15 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
3 Q1 8:02 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:23 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +11% WAS ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 2:36 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 14:16 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 6:56 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Cody Barton), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 3122 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +21% ATL ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 5:17 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% WAS ATL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jeremy Reaves (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Commanders by 8
Luck in points
5.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 46% · Falcons 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Commanders · Falcons

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