luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Ravens vs Titans, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Titans 24–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
Tennessee Titans 16

October 15, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +41 Ravens lucky · −41 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 30 TEN 6
  2. 2 BAL 33 TEN 16
  3. 3 BAL 30 TEN 17
  4. 4 BAL 24 TEN 15
  5. 5 BAL 27 TEN 21
  6. 6 BAL 26 TEN 24
  7. 7 BAL 35 TEN 38
  8. 8 BAL 17 TEN 23
  9. 9 BAL 13 TEN 24
  10. 10 BAL 3 TEN 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 59% of them, Titans 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+15.2%
Ravens by 9–1617.1%
Ravens by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation3.1%
Titans by 1–820.0%
Titans by 9–1612.6%
Titans by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 8, without the luck Ravens by 6.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • N. Folk, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 9 for 88 yards, Titans 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 7 yards +2% TEN +1.0 pts
Q1 7:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Williams), 22 yards +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 14:25 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% BAL +2.3 pts
Q2 4:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 13 yards +4% BAL +1.5 pts
Q2 3:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Odell Beckham Jr.), 10 yards +2% BAL 0.0 pts
Q3 12:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans, 8 yards +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 11:09 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens, 15 yards +3% TEN +2.1 pts
Q3 8:37 Disqualification on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 15 yards +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q3 8:37 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 5:35 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 3:34 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 2:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.2 pts
Q4 1:46 Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 3 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 6 yards +2% TEN +1.7 pts
Q4 1:17 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Tyjae Spears), 10 yards +2% BAL +1.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 11:15 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% TEN BAL: Field goal
3 Q1 4:06 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal
4 Q1 0:12 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% TEN BAL: Field goal
5 Q2 14:25 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% BAL BAL: Field goal
6 Q2 10:59 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% TEN BAL: Field goal
7 Q3 3:23 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q3 2:30 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Teair Tart (TEN DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 93% · Titans 7%

Final margin
Ravens by 8
Luck in points
1.5 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 59% · Titans 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Ravens · Titans

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