luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Ravens vs Titans, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Titans 24–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.7 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:43 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
Tennessee Titans 16

October 15, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −5.5

Luck index +37 Ravens lucky · −37 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 34 TEN 10
  2. 2 BAL 30 TEN 14
  3. 3 BAL 18 TEN 6
  4. 4 BAL 24 TEN 17
  5. 5 BAL 23 TEN 19
  6. 6 BAL 35 TEN 34
  7. 7 BAL 33 TEN 35
  8. 8 BAL 17 TEN 23
  9. 9 BAL 17 TEN 27
  10. 10 BAL 23 TEN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 63% of them, Titans 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+18.0%
Ravens by 9–1619.1%
Ravens by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation2.7%
Titans by 1–819.0%
Titans by 9–1610.7%
Titans by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • N. Folk, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 4:06 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% BAL BAL: Field goal
3 Q1 0:12 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% TEN BAL: Field goal
4 Q2 14:25 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% BAL BAL: Field goal
5 Q2 10:59 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +8% TEN BAL: Field goal
6 Q3 4:43 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% BAL TEN: Punt
7 Q3 3:23 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q3 2:30 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Teair Tart (TEN DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 93% · Titans 7%

Final margin
Ravens by 8
Luck in points
0.7 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 63% · Titans 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Ravens · Titans

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