luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Eagles at Jets, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets stole one. They beat the Eagles 20–14, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.9 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 77 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 14
New York Jets 20

October 15, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +82 Jets very lucky · −82 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Jets win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 35 NYJ 6
  2. 2 PHI 29 NYJ 7
  3. 3 PHI 23 NYJ 6
  4. 4 PHI 34 NYJ 20
  5. 5 PHI 27 NYJ 16
  6. 6 PHI 28 NYJ 20
  7. 7 PHI 17 NYJ 12
  8. 8 PHI 16 NYJ 14
  9. 9 PHI 31 NYJ 34
  10. 10 PHI 20 NYJ 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 82% of them, Jets 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+35.0%
Eagles by 9–1622.5%
Eagles by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation1.1%
Jets by 1–811.8%
Jets by 9–164.3%
Jets by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 4.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 42 yds made · 82% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds missed · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:42 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Eagles were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% NYJ PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:02 G. Zuerlein made 35-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +10% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q3 8:51 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3245 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +15% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q3 4:51 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 11:17 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
6 Q4 8:17 J. Elliott missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +17% NYJ PHI: Turnover
7 Q4 2:32 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% PHI PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 2:00 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +77% NYJ PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 21% · Jets 79%

Final margin
Jets by 6
Luck in points
1.1 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 82% · Jets 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Eagles · Jets

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