luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Eagles at Jets, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Eagles 20–14, but the replays lean toward the Eagles: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): the Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 14
New York Jets 20

October 15, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +70 Jets very lucky · −70 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 34 NYJ 9
  2. 2 PHI 22 NYJ 3
  3. 3 PHI 28 NYJ 13
  4. 4 PHI 28 NYJ 17
  5. 5 PHI 24 NYJ 16
  6. 6 PHI 21 NYJ 17
  7. 7 PHI 17 NYJ 15
  8. 8 PHI 7 NYJ 9
  9. 9 PHI 10 NYJ 17
  10. 10 PHI 9 NYJ 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 70% of them, Jets 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+23.0%
Eagles by 9–1620.9%
Eagles by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation4.3%
Jets by 1–816.1%
Jets by 9–167.4%
Jets by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 6, without the luck Jets by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds missed · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 5 for 46 yards, Jets 9 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:24 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Josh Jobe), 5 yards +6% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q1 9:47 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Quinton Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 5:10 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Michael Carter II), 3 yards +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 14:29 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 6 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q2 13:33 False Start on the Jets (Michael Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards +2% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 1:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Josh Jobe), 15 yards +6% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +2% PHI +1.1 pts
Q3 13:32 Illegal Shift on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q3 11:33 Running Into the Kicker on the Jets (Jamien Sherwood), 5 yards +3% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 8:51 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 15 yards, wiping out the play +15% PHI +2.7 pts
Q3 7:33 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.2 pts
Q3 5:38 Kick Catch Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 12:29 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:42 The Eagles were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% NYJ PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:02 G. Zuerlein made a 35-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +9% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q3 8:51 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3245 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +15% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q3 4:51 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 13:53 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +8% NYJ PHI: Missed field goal
6 Q4 8:17 J. Elliott missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +17% NYJ PHI: Turnover
7 Q4 2:32 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% PHI PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 2:00 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +17% NYJ PHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 15% · Jets 85%

Final margin
Jets by 6
Luck in points
0.8 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 70% · Jets 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Eagles · Jets

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