luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2023 · October 16, 2023

Cowboys at Chargers, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Chargers 20–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:15 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
Los Angeles Chargers 17

October 16, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +27 Cowboys lucky · −27 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 DAL 40 LAC 14
  2. 2 DAL 37 LAC 17
  3. 3 DAL 26 LAC 12
  4. 4 DAL 23 LAC 13
  5. 5 DAL 30 LAC 23
  6. 6 DAL 17 LAC 13
  7. 7 DAL 19 LAC 17
  8. 8 DAL 17 LAC 20
  9. 9 DAL 10 LAC 17
  10. 10 DAL 10 LAC 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 73% of them, Chargers 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+21.6%
Cowboys by 9–1622.2%
Cowboys by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation4.0%
Chargers by 1–815.0%
Chargers by 9–167.3%
Chargers by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Cowboys by 3, without the luck Cowboys by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 39 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 11 for 85 yards, Chargers 9 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:23 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% DAL +3.1 pts
Q1 5:13 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 13:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.4 pts
Q2 12:59 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 5 yards +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 9:49 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Tyrus Wheat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 8:14 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 5:38 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +5% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:25 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% DAL +1.0 pts
Q2 0:28 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +7% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 0:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +7% DAL +1.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 12:18 Illegal Shift on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 14:03 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards +1% LAC +0.7 pts
Q4 11:14 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 5 yards +4% LAC +0.6 pts
Q4 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DAL +2.4 pts
Q4 9:24 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 9 yards +7% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 8:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Stephon Gilmore), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.1 pts
Q4 7:11 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.7 pts
Q4 5:52 Illegal Contact on the Chargers, 5 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 2:19 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% DAL +0.1 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:29 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +12% LAC DAL: Field goal
2 Q3 7:47 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% DAL LAC: Field goal
3 Q4 8:55 The Cowboys fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% LAC DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 7:15 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +16% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +13% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 3:35 S. McKeon dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +15% LAC DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 3:30 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 1:29 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +10% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (DAL T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 71% · Chargers 29%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
1.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 73% · Chargers 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Cowboys · Chargers

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