luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 16, 2023

Cowboys at Chargers, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Chargers 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 7.2 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:29 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 26 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
Los Angeles Chargers 17

October 16, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +43 Cowboys lucky · −43 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 6, Chargers win 4.

  1. 1 DAL 39 LAC 17
  2. 2 DAL 34 LAC 20
  3. 3 DAL 27 LAC 16
  4. 4 DAL 16 LAC 9
  5. 5 DAL 13 LAC 9
  6. 6 DAL 19 LAC 17
  7. 7 DAL 7 LAC 10
  8. 8 DAL 24 LAC 31
  9. 9 DAL 6 LAC 17
  10. 10 DAL 10 LAC 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 57% of them, Chargers 43%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+11.5%
Cowboys by 9–1615.7%
Cowboys by 1–823.2%
Level after regulation6.7%
Chargers by 1–822.3%
Chargers by 9–1613.1%
Chargers by 17+7.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:29 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% LAC DAL: Field goal
2 Q3 7:47 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +13% DAL LAC: Field goal
3 Q4 15:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +20% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:15 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +23% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 3:35 S. McKeon dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +18% LAC DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 3:30 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 1:29 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +26% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (DAL T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 42% · Chargers 58%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
2.9 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 57% · Chargers 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Cowboys · Chargers

More from Week 6 2023