2023 season · final

Los Angeles Chargers, 2023: game by game

The Chargers went 5–12 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–8.

Every game

How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Dolphins	L 34–36	56%	−56
Week 2	@ Titans	L 24–27	26%	−26
Week 3	@ Vikings	W 28–24	48%	+52
Week 4	vs Raiders	W 24–17	89%	+11
Week 6	vs Cowboys	L 17–20	27%	−27
Week 7	@ Chiefs	L 17–31	10%	−10
Week 8	vs Bears	W 30–13	66%	+34
Week 9	@ Jets	W 27–6	67%	+33
Week 10	vs Lions	L 38–41	21%	−21
Week 11	@ Packers	L 20–23	45%	−45
Week 12	vs Ravens	L 10–20	11%	−11
Week 13	@ Patriots	W 6–0	75%	+25
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 7–24	15%	−15
Week 15	@ Raiders	L 21–63	6%	−6
Week 16	vs Bills	L 22–24	16%	−16
Week 17	@ Broncos	L 9–16	32%	−32
Week 18	vs Chiefs	L 12–13	20%	−20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −56 vs MIA

Wk 2 −26 @ TEN

Wk 3 +52 @ MIN

Wk 4 +11 vs LV

Wk 6 −27 vs DAL

Wk 7 −10 @ KC

Wk 8 +34 vs CHI

Wk 9 +33 @ NYJ

Wk 10 −21 vs DET

Wk 11 −45 @ GB

Wk 12 −11 vs BAL

Wk 13 +25 @ NE

Wk 14 −15 vs DEN

Wk 15 −6 @ LV

Wk 16 −16 vs BUF

Wk 17 −32 @ DEN

Wk 18 −20 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.59	+14.7
Fumble bounces	−0.03	−4.2
Rest	−0.04	−1.2
Judgment calls	−0.06	+4.2
Injuries	−0.23	−10.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.54	−4.6
Drops	−0.58	−8.3