luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Chargers at Patriots, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Patriots 6–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:14 left): Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 6
New England Patriots 0

December 3, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −4.5

Luck index +25 Chargers about even · −25 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 36 NE 10
  2. 2 LAC 20 NE 0
  3. 3 LAC 23 NE 7
  4. 4 LAC 13 NE 0
  5. 5 LAC 36 NE 27
  6. 6 LAC 17 NE 10
  7. 7 LAC 17 NE 13
  8. 8 LAC 9 NE 7
  9. 9 LAC 15 NE 18
  10. 10 LAC 14 NE 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 75% of them, Patriots 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+22.8%
Chargers by 9–1622.9%
Chargers by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation4.3%
Patriots by 1–813.8%
Patriots by 9–166.8%
Patriots by 17+2.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Chargers by 6, without the luck Chargers by 6.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Dicker, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 20 yards, Patriots 3 for 14 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:34 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 0:02 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 7:14 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on the Patriots (DeVante Parker), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q3 3:31 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 6:58 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 2:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Essang Bassey), 5 yards +2% NE +0.7 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:25 The Patriots fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC NE: Punt
2 Q2 12:14 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% LAC NE: Punt
3 Q2 7:14 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDelay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% LAC NE: Punt
4 Q3 13:03 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NE NE: Punt
5 Q3 11:16 The Patriots converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% NE NE: Punt
6 Q3 7:19 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q4 7:48 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% LAC NE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 7:03 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% LAC NE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Demario Douglas (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ja'Sir Taylor (LAC CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Raheem Layne (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 90% · Patriots 10%

Final margin
Chargers by 6
Luck in points
0.5 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 75% · Patriots 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Chargers · Patriots

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