luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Falcons at Jets, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Jets 13–8, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.1 points to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Falcons were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:32 left): Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 13
New York Jets 8

December 3, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2

Luck index +6 Falcons about even · −6 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 41 NYJ 10
  2. 2 ATL 29 NYJ 3
  3. 3 ATL 27 NYJ 6
  4. 4 ATL 24 NYJ 6
  5. 5 ATL 22 NYJ 7
  6. 6 ATL 19 NYJ 6
  7. 7 ATL 13 NYJ 3
  8. 8 ATL 27 NYJ 20
  9. 9 ATL 16 NYJ 13
  10. 10 ATL 3 NYJ 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.

37 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained −0.23 +0.07 worse by 0.30
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed −0.17 +0.11 better by 0.28
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.17 −0.04 worse by 0.14
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed −0.23 +0.05 better by 0.28

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 94% of them, Jets 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+60.9%
Falcons by 9–1622.1%
Falcons by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Jets by 1–84.5%
Jets by 9–160.9%
Jets by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 2.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • Y. Koo, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:19 The Jets fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% ATL NYJ: Field goal
2 Q2 3:32 Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3872 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +19% ATL ATL: Punt
3 Q3 13:01 The Jets converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q3 2:54 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q4 9:04 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 2:52 The Jets fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ATL NYJ: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:24 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:51 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 173rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +7% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 60% · Jets 40%

Final margin
Falcons by 5
Luck in points
2.5 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 94% · Jets 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Falcons · Jets

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