Week 13 2023 · December 4, 2023
Bengals at Jaguars, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Jaguars 34–31, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
An off day for the Jaguars: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jaguars were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (OT, 6:19 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 50 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final (OT)
 Cincinnati Bengals | 34 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Bengals lucky · −35 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 7, Jaguars win 3.
- 1 CIN 38 JAX 10
- 2 CIN 41 JAX 21
- 3 CIN 29 JAX 14
- 4 CIN 24 JAX 12
- 5 CIN 32 JAX 24
- 6 CIN 32 JAX 27
- 7 CIN 28 JAX 26
- 8 CIN 25 JAX 28
- 9 CIN 15 JAX 24
- 10 CIN 19 JAX 37
Your call
Did the Bengals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jaguars
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.11 | better by 0.17 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.11 | worse by 0.08 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.11 | better by 0.08 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.09 | worse by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 65% of them, Jaguars 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 22.9% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 23.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 5.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 57 yds missed · 67% expected
- B. McManus, 48 yds missed · 79% expected
- E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 70% expected
- B. McManus, 40 yds made · 90% expected
- E. McPherson, 48 yds made · 79% expected
Penalties: Bengals 6 for 35 yards, Jaguars 7 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:17 | Face Mask on the Jaguars, 15 yards | +5% CIN +1.8 pts |
| Q1 6:51 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Joe Bachie), 10 yards | +2% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:22 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Calvin Ridley), 10 yards | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:18 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:16 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:02 | Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Devin Lloyd), 5 yards | +1% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:12 | Illegal Contact on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 5 yards | +3% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:08 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:00 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% JAX +0.9 pts |
| OT 6:19 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +50% CIN +5.1 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:33 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws | +21% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 2:33 | E. McPherson made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 33 of 44 from 45+ before | +15% CIN | CIN: End of game |
| 3 | Q4 2:28 | The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +27% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 0:37 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +16% CIN | JAX: Field goal |
| 5 | OT 8:48 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +16% JAX | JAX: Punt |
| 6 | OT 6:19 | The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +50% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 7 | OT 3:22 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +19% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 8 | OT 1:50 | E. McPherson made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 34 of 45 from 45+ before | +21% CIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Montaric Brown (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 7.2 pts
- Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 62% · Jaguars 38%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 65% · Jaguars 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · 
Bengals · 
Jaguars
More from Week 13 2023
- Seahawks at Cowboys DAL 41–35 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Steelers ARI 24–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Falcons at Jets ATL 13–8 · replay 97% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans HOU 22–17 · replay 41% for the winner
- Lions at Saints DET 33–28 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 31–28 · replay 66% for the winner
- Chargers at Patriots LAC 6–0 · replay 75% for the winner
- Dolphins at Commanders MIA 45–15 · replay 98% for the winner
- Panthers at Buccaneers TB 21–18 · replay 91% for the winner
- Browns at Rams LA 36–19 · replay 65% for the winner
- 49ers at Eagles SF 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Packers GB 27–19 · replay 42% for the winner