2023 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2023: game by game
The Bengals went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.9 wins. Luck added 3.1: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Browns | L 3–24 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 2 | vs Ravens | L 24–27 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 3 | vs Rams | W 19–16 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 4 | @ Titans | L 3–27 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 5 | @ Cardinals | W 34–20 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 6 | vs Seahawks | W 17–13 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 8 | @ 49ers | W 31–17 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 9 | vs Bills | W 24–18 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 10 | vs Texans | L 27–30 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 11 | @ Ravens | L 20–34 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 12 | vs Steelers | L 10–16 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 13 | @ Jaguars | W 34–31 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 14 | vs Colts | W 34–14 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 15 | vs Vikings | W 27–24 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 16 | @ Steelers | L 11–34 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 17 | @ Chiefs | L 17–25 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 18 | vs Browns | W 31–14 | 94% | +6 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.38 | +8.3 |
| Kicks | +0.24 | −4.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.19 | −8.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.06 | +11.0 |
| Injuries | −0.17 | −8.1 |
| Drops | −0.39 | −0.3 |