luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Browns at Bengals, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 31–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:59 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Cincinnati Bengals 31

January 7, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7.5

Luck index +7 Bengals about even · −7 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Bengals win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 27 CIN 20
  2. 2 CLE 10 CIN 13
  3. 3 CLE 13 CIN 20
  4. 4 CLE 6 CIN 16
  5. 5 CLE 17 CIN 30
  6. 6 CLE 14 CIN 30
  7. 7 CLE 14 CIN 34
  8. 8 CLE 0 CIN 23
  9. 9 CLE 3 CIN 30
  10. 10 CLE 0 CIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 7% of them, Bengals 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.4%
Browns by 9–161.5%
Browns by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bengals by 1–810.9%
Bengals by 9–1618.7%
Bengals by 17+63.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 16.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% CIN CLE: Punt
2 Q1 11:59 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CLE CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:06 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q1 11:02 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% CIN CLE: Punt
5 Q1 8:59 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q1 4:38 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +2% CIN CLE: Punt
7 Q1 1:34 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:00 E. McPherson made 45-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 35 of 46 from 45+ before +2% CIN CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 3.7 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Myles Garrett (CLE DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Amari Cooper (CLE WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (CLE K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rodney McLeod (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 17
Luck in points
0.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 7% · Bengals 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Browns · Bengals

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