luckadjusted

Week 18 2023 · January 7, 2024

Eagles at Giants, Week 18 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Eagles 27–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:19 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 11, worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 10
New York Giants 27

January 7, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −4.5

Luck index +49 Giants lucky · −49 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 35 NYG 10
  2. 2 PHI 23 NYG 9
  3. 3 PHI 24 NYG 14
  4. 4 PHI 26 NYG 20
  5. 5 PHI 20 NYG 18
  6. 6 PHI 27 NYG 30
  7. 7 PHI 20 NYG 26
  8. 8 PHI 23 NYG 33
  9. 9 PHI 13 NYG 26
  10. 10 PHI 10 NYG 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 49% of them, Giants 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+11.6%
Eagles by 9–1614.5%
Eagles by 1–820.6%
Level after regulation5.6%
Giants by 1–820.7%
Giants by 9–1615.7%
Giants by 17+11.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 12.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Crosby, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Crosby, 45 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:18 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% NYG PHI: Punt
2 Q1 5:10 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% PHI PHI: Turnover
3 Q1 3:50 The Eagles fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NYG PHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 0:35 Encroachment on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 4827 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +3% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 14:11 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% NYG PHI: Punt
6 Q2 11:31 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:19 The Giants converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q2 8:49 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% NYG PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jason Pinnock (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyre Phillips (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Bullock (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Giants 100%

Final margin
Giants by 17
Luck in points
4.3 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 49% · Giants 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2023 games · Eagles · Giants

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